Tag: The Fourth Turning

A Perfect Storm: A Hottake On Q*, The Looming Possibility of AGI and The Need For UBI

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve been reading up on this whole Q* issue in its relation to Sam Altman being fired then rehired and it’s all…very curious. Just the idea that we may be approaching AGI is enough to give one pause for thought. And the idea that it may happen between now and when the so-called “Fourth Turning” staring in late 2024, early 2025 is very unsettling.

Imagine that just as the United States is having an existential political crisis, we are also being faced with something akin to a Singularity as well. If we achieve AGI between now and Election Day 2024, then, suddenly the idea of a Universal Basic Income becomes a serious political proposal.

But, wait, there’s more!

What if AGI is considered “woke” by MAGA to the point that they want it destroyed because it starts to take “jerbs” away from blue collar MAGA people? How’s that for a sticky wicket? You would pit the tech against the people at the same time as we the United States debates if it should lurch into fascism. And if AGI came and suddenly the entire economy was thrown up in the air…well, you really have a recipe for economic — and political — disaster.

But I am prone to “hysterical doom shit,” so, lulz, it could be that we just continue to drift through history and we punt our political problems down the road and only gradually reach any sort of technological Singularity. But I am…worried.

It definitely seems as though 2024 – 2025 could be one of the most momentous eras in American, if not human history. Only time will tell.

Welp, Biden Is Probably Going To Be Impeached In January

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All signs point to Speaker MAGA Mike impeaching Joe Biden sometime in January. The point of this silly act is simply to make Biden and Trump “equal” in the minds of low information voters as they head to the polls in late 2024. That and a huge amount of spite.

It seems as though Speaker MAGA Mike is doing this at the direct order of ding-dong Trump. The two met recently so the speaker could suck Trump’s political cock. As one does in such a position.

The whole thing is a huge waste of time. But it will only help to cement Trump’s absolute power over House Republicans. And, remember, when should Trump go full tyrant once he’s re-elected, if the House is Republican….he’s going to have pretty much absolute power. He will be able to consolidate power through Agenda47, Schedule F and Project 2025 quite quickly.

Then, given how form follows function, we’re going to have a Constitutional Convention that will go rouge, put MAGA Enabling Acts into the Constitution itself and that’s all she wrote. We turn into a Russia-style autocracy with camps and potentially American Killing fields.

I wish I was joking.

But we have to go through a dumb impeachment of Biden in January so Trump has a spring in his step heading into November 2024.

Canaries In The Coalmine

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are two things to keep an eye out for starting Election Day 2024 if Trump is re-elected — smug Twitter liberals fleeing the country and people leaving their state to states that better fit their personal politics.

If the first happens, then, lulz, we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy. I predict as many as 1 million smug Twitter liberals with circle jerk podcasts could simply bounce between November 2024 and February 2025. Maybe I’m over estimating these numbers, but I do believe that there will be a large number of Twitter liberals who peace out because they have the means to escape the looming Trump autocracy.

Meanwhile, if there is a mad rush of Reds fleeing to Red States and Blues fleeing to Blue states then there is a chance that we’re going to have some sort of epic shitshow political crisis, the largest scene since the beginning of the Civil War. I think it’s more likely such a scenario would happen if Trump loses, but I suppose it’s possible that if Trump wins there might be something akin to a “Glorious Revolution” that would make people feel pretty insecure about their personal safety because of political violence.

And remember, any attempt at a Blue “Glorious Revolution” probably will do nothing more than prompt a secession crisis as Red states decide to leave the Union rather than tolerate any of the structural reforms that a Glorious Revolution would push through.

I guess what I’m saying is — we’re fucked.

The only scenario where there isn’t a “Fourth Turning” is if Biden wins and Trump goes peacefully back into the shadows. While possible, that’s…unlikely.

I Have Got To Hurry Up

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though disaster could strike at any moment when it comes to this novel. Something might happen that either changes the context of the novel a great deal relative to my personal life or even makes the whole experience a lot more difficult to do.

I have some issues with my teeth that are really causing me growing alarm. I’m afraid there will come a point very, very soon when I’m in so much pain that it is difficult for me to get *any* writing done. That, combined with how I’m not going to live forever, is forcing me to push myself to write faster and better.

And all of this is happening in the context of not just the fucking Fourth Turning zooming towards us starting in late 2024, early 2025, but the very real possibility that all human art will be replaced by some sort of AGI in the near, near future.

All of this is a “Not great, Bob,” situation for someone like me who just wants to write a break out first novel that will be enjoyed by millions. (Wink.)

Hysterical Doom Shit: Did I Just Have The Last Peaceful Thanksgiving (For a Few Years?)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a bit worried. A year from now, the country COULD be tearing itself apart as we lurch towards either a MAGA-themed autocracy or something akin to a civil war. I live in a really deep-Red area of Virginia and one of the signs that Something Bad is about to happen is if I don’t feel safe anymore.

If I have to flee my bum fuck Egypt home for a Blue part of Virginia…oh boy. Things would be careening towards a dark place. But to even speculate on such things really is hysterical doom shit.

It could be that Thanksgiving 2024 will be just…Thanksgiving. Nothing will change and I will do it like I always do. But, I dunno, bruh. It definitely seems as though the moment Election Day 2024 arrives things will be…bumpy.

By Thanksgiving 2024, either incoming POTUS Tyrant Trump will have made it clear who he’s going to arrest…or Biden’s re-election will cause a Secession Crisis and we’ll all being worried about Texas leaving the Union before January. But I just don’t know. It could go either way. It really could.

It might be that nothing of note happens by Thanksgiving 2024. But if Trump gets re-elected we are in DEEP TROUBLE.

The Shape Of Things To Come: ‘Her’ Is Our Future

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Not sense the 1930s movie The Shape Of Things To Come has a movie so predicted the future. Every day, it seems as though “Her” is pretty much our future in, what, 18 months?

If that is the case, then, holy shit. The entire knowledge economy is about to be totally re-imagined. And that will happen in the context of the fucking Fourth Turning. Or, put another way, holy shit are we in for a bumpy road over the next 18 or more months.

We could see a total transformation of the technological and political landscape in a rather abrupt manner. Late 2024, early 2025 has at least the making of a “holy shit” moment in human history. By 2030, the entire geopolitical world could be re-formed into something new and exotic, especially if you think a few regional wars might go hot with a limited nuclear exchange.

But remember — the whole thing will be scary as shit while it’s happening. There will be no narrative or value to what happens. And, if things get as bad as I fear, there will be long stretches of time where communication itself is something of a luxury.

Anyway. We definitely seem to be rushing towards some sort of “Petite Singularity” in the very near future. Buckle up.

The Sprint Begins

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m just about to lock down the first two chapters of the third draft of my first novel. It’s some of the best writing I’ve ever done. I’m really, really pleased. I just have to keep the quality of work up.

I’m never going to be Gillian Flynn, but I am at least getting closer to Stieg Larsson quality writing (I know I read his stuff translated). The key thing that changed in the last month or so is I’ve finally — finally — figured out the relationship between different people as the story opens.

As such, now I can zoom through the much of the novel. I still have a lot of issues with some structure ahead of me — especially in the third act –but, in general, I know this story so well that things writing *should* move at a pretty nice clip.

But there are some known unknowns. One is the holiday season is now here and that is going to scramble things on an emotional basis. Meanwhile, I’ve been in a very — VERY — idyllic situation when it comes to writing for a long time and that is bound to change — one way or another — sooner rather than later. I just have to accept that.

What’s more EVEN IF I stick the landing of this novel, the looming Fourth Turning and Petite Singularity starting in late 2024, early 2025 is something I’ve quite worried about. And that’s over and above what a stressful pain in the ass the querying process is on whole.

Anyway. Wish me luck.

Pondering The Potential Reception Of This Novel By Literary Agents

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now that I’ve just about locked down the first two chapters of the third draft of this novel, I find myself pondering What Next. I still have a few more months of writing to finish the third draft, but I definitely am beginning to think about the querying process.

My big concern is, of course, that because I’m doing this in a vacuum that the somewhat provocative premise of the novel will make literary agents — who I imagine as being mostly liberal white women — either laugh or get angry. I have no idea if the “sex worker who solves a murder mystery” will be cool with literary agents or not because of that.

But “Barry” was popular, so, lulz, it’s at least *possible* that my similar type story might have broad appeal. And, yet, sexwork is so loaded in the minds of most people while being a hired assassin is a lulz that it’s possible it will just be too loaded for anyone to take seriously.

Yet the point is that I want a heroine is really, really interesting. Someone unexpected who you will want to hang out with for the time it takes to read ~140,000 words. I believe I have come up with just the type of evocative story that people will really find worth their time.

I hope.

The holiday season is now here, so that is an added complication. My fear is that because of the holiday season and other “known unknowns” that I’ll really be pushing it to wrap this novel up no later than April 2024. Then I will have to save up the money to get a professional manuscript consultant to read over the third draft.

THEN I have to start to query just as the “Perfect Storm” of The Fourth Turning and the AI generated Petite Singularity happens in late 2024, early 2025. But, if nothing else, I definitely am happy with this story. There are probably going to be a lot — A LOT — of structural changes to the third act in the transition from second to third draft.

But I’ll cross that bridge when I get to it.

Now The Hard Part

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love to write. Writing is like shedding skin for me. I do it a lot without even thinking about it. And, for years now, I’m been VERY delusional about what’s going on with my first novel. I’ve allowed myself this luxury because I knew it was the only way I would ever actually finish anythiing.

And, yet, now that it’s clear that I’ve finally figured out the beginning of the third draft of this novel and I’m going to — hopefully — wrap it up by, say, around April 1st, I have to put on my big boy pants

I have to start thinking about querying.

The reason why this scares the shit out of me is multifold. One is, well, I’m a drunk crank who doesn’t always follow the media narrative on social media. I retweet a lot — A LOT — of pictures of hot chicks. I get drunk and rant about the importance of heteronormative monoculture. And I have been known to say I fucking hate the Bechdel Test. AND, WHAT’s MORE, my novel could easily be reduced to the logline of smelly CIS white male spends 140,000 words to depict a “sex worker solving a murder mystery.”

I retweet a lot of pictures of hot chicks on Twitter.
None of those things endear me to the liberal women who often are literary agents. But I refuse to change anything. I’m going to accept the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, come what may.

I have a lot to consider going forward. I have to think about how I’m going to pay for a manuscript consultant to look over my copy. I have to buy AND READ a series of novels that I can “comp” my novel to, even though it’s a real struggle to consume anyone else’s content — and I’m a storytelling snob.

AND, all of this is happening the context of the rise of AI, the potential for a “Fourth Turning” in late 2024, early 2025 AND the very real possibility that my entire life could be thrown up in the air because of known unknowns.

I dig shit like this.
And, yet, the whole point of starting a novel in the first place was to get outside my comfort zone and to see how far I could get in the process before it became absolutely, 100% clear that I would have to — gulp — self-publish.

But I would only consider that after a good bit of fighting to get published traditionally. And I might even be so stubborn that I simply but the finished novel aside until I can get something ELSE published traditionally and use the leverage that gives me to get my first novel published.

Building Out An American SA For Tyrant Trump In Early 2025 Would Take Time & Not Happen In A Vacuum

by Ender

As it stands, Tyrant Trump seems to think that all his problems with a restless populace will be fixed by simply invoking the Insurrection Act. In that respect, MAGA “thoughtleaders” are making some pretty silly and child-like assumptions. They made similar assumptions about SCOTUS in the lead up to the January 6th Insurrection.

The problem is — after having read about the consolidation of Nazi power in early 1933, I realize that both Project 2025 and Agenda47 have a huge, gaping hole in their conspiracy: no SA.

And, it gets even more complicated. The US of 2025 is far larger in both population and geographic size than Germany in 1933. And the US is far more decentralized. And diverse. And has a far more potent tradition of democracy than the Weimer Republic.

It seems as though MAGA believes that simply by corrupting the administration of justice and the executive they can walk all over the American population. MAGA believes Americans will allow Tyrant Trump to throttle American democracy in broad daylight. I assume they think this because Trump has gotten away with a lot already, so, lulz, of course he can go full tyrant without any consequences.

But if Trump goes full tyrant and corrupts the administration of justice to the point that he is literally snatching people off the street and throwing them in jail, then….uhhh…there is going to be a reaction on the part of the American population.

The key thing is that the Nazis had an SA to browbeat the 48% of the Germany population that didn’t support them. Even if Trump decided to organize some sort of national paramilitary group at some point in early 2025 when it becomes clear that invoking the Insurrection Act isn’t going to cut it, there would be a lag time.

Trump would need a least maybe 300,000 or more MAGA SA members to scare the shit out of people in Blue States. But doing that would, unto itself, cause a reaction on the part of the American population. And remember, all of this would happen in the context of Trump being a lazy idiot who would just thrash around in anger rather than doing any sort of Great Man shit.

I suppose Trump could weaponize the existing ICE infrastructure and turn the organization into some sort of Gestapo. But doing that would ALSO really piss a lot of Blue State people off. And also alienate a lot of Traditionalists who just want to put kids in cages, not have their Blue family members roughed up and tortured in a camp.

I still believe that some sort of General Strike combined with the use of the 14th Amendment might lure the U.S. Military into supporting some sort of toppling of Tyrant Trump. But THAT would also cause a huge problem — probably in the guise of a Secession crisis.

The whole point is — unless we magically punt our problems down the road by peacefully re-electing Biden in 2024….we’re fucked.