Month: May 2022

The Streaming Darkhorse That Is ‘Peacock’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m of the opinion that current streaming underperformer Peacock’s best days are head of it. The reason — I think it’s inevitable that there will be even more media consolidation and NBCUniversal is going to gain access to a lot more content for Peacock.

My current hunch is that Warner Bros Discovery will merge with NBCUniversal and then dump all their streaming content into Peacock. I think, long term, Peacock is a great brandname that will resonate with audiences. I also think that as the streaming business continues to mature that we might see some pretty shocking M & A activity.

Like, I think Apple might use some of its Solomon wealth to buy both Spotify and Netflix and then somehow meld all that streaming ability with both Apple+ and iTunes. Or something. That just seems to make a lot of sense to me at the moment.

I guess what I’m saying is — the streaming story isn’t over yet. A lot of interesting things are set to happen sooner than you might think.

Does ‘Woke Cancel Culture’ Even Exist?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing I struggle a lot with is how real “woke cancel culture” even is beyond the fevered political wet dreams of MAGA New Right Republicans. It seems to me that a number of different things are happening and they’re being all referenced as the same thing — “woke cancel culture.”

I do think that on social issues younger people — the ones who are the most Very Online — do have different expectations than the Olds. As such, when Olds do something that crosses them, they’re the first to flip out on Twitter about it.

Another thing that is going on is Republicans are using any sign of the above to stoke their base’ absolute visceral paranoia about being “canceled” just for being conservative. I know from my Traditionalist relatives that the abstract fear of being “canceled” is at the very forefront of their minds. Their fear is, in general, that they will say something Not Leftist in public, it will be recorded by someone with a smartphone, it will go viral and their Lives With Be Ruined.

But there’s more going on even all that which makes things even murkier. The #MeToo movement was a revolution in gender politics that, like all revolutions, kind of went to extremes at points. (All the name brand people who were brought down by the #MeToo movement definitely deserved it, but the Aziz Ansari event is something I struggle with because of its complexity.)

And, lastly, a number of the people associated with being “victims” of “woke cancel culture” either deserved it or are doing quite well, thank you. I mean, Dave Chappelle continues, to this day, to tell “transphobic” jokes and he’s the biggest comic in the world.

Tell me, Fox News, how he’s been canceled.

I don’t know. I just don’t know. It’s all very complicated and needs a nuanced response, something that is impossible to get in an age that lacks subtly.

Of Bill Maher & Fox News

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Bill Maher these days is someone who Fox News loves, loves, loves to hold up and say, “If you’ve lost Bill Maher…” when that’s just fucking bullshit. Maher is a libertarian who is more anti-MAGA than he is center-Left.

Yet the obsession that the MAGA New Right has with pointing out Maher’s disillusionment with some elements of the center-Left, especially the “woke cancel culture mob” aspect of it, grows more and more grating by the moment. Which, of course, is the point — Fox News wants to smugly troll the center-Left by alleging that one of the Left’s own has abandoned them.

This is complete bullshit.

I will note, in passing, that while I’m definitely not a libertarian, I do share with Maher one thing: I’m far more anti-MAGA than I am Leftist. In fact, there are parts of the Left that I fucking hate. And, yet, the center-Left, in general, is far, far more fact based than the modern American center-Right and, as such, that particular choice has been made for me.

Anyway, lulz.

It’s not like we can do anything about any of this. The two sides are receding from each other at a historic rate. America is either going to slip peacefully into an autocracy or we’re going to have a civil war.

Now, For Hard Work

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now that I have finished the first draft of my first novel, I’m going to take a writing pause of about a month and focus instead of reading and development. I’m probably also going to do a lot of development on the other four novels in this five novel project.

Anyway, I’m going to try to really focus on some basic how-to books that I’ve read a few times already while also reading for entertainment so I can stimulate my mind that way. I might also use the Disney+ subscription I have to distract myself while I figure out how to both improve the first draft when I transition it to a second draft and prevent it from exploding in word count.

I really have a looming problem with word count, I’m afraid.

As the story gets better, each scene is going to grow longer and if I’m not careful, the second draft of my first novel is going to balloon to 200,000 words. That is just not practical. So, I’m going to whittle down the scene count and also, in general, try to make each word and scene really mean something and help the plot forward.

The biggest struggle coming up, of course, is going to be out of my hands — finding reliable Beta Readers. It’s way too easy to get really excited and assume there will be a large pool of people who want to read what you’ve written when, lulz, that is definitely not the case.

What The Fuck Is Going On With MonkeyPox?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is not meant to be an informative post so much as a mulling of what is generally known and what it might mean. When it comes to MonkeyPox, we have something of a medical mystery on our hands. It could be this all just a lulz and it could mean that there is community spread of MonkeyPox for some reason that we don’t understand yet.

I’m worried.

There are some things we have to understand before going any further — MonkeyPox is not deadly and we have a vaccine. But, from what I can tell, if you get it you’re not doing anything productive for a while. And it’s scary looking, so that, unto itself could be enough to cause people to freak out if, for some reason, MonkeyPox is now more transmittable.

The fear is, of course, that the same political dynamic that hampered our abiilty to slow the spread of COVID will pop up with MonkeyPox. But the thing that has me worried the most is, something weird is going on with MonkeyPox — it seems, at least, to be spreading a lot easier than it should.

It seems, a least, that there is community spread like we saw in the early days of COVID. I would suggest you keep an eye on celebrities — if a celebrity catches MonkeyPox and admits it like Tom Hanks did, that could cause the US to shut down for a while like COVID did in the early days — even with the existence of a MonkeyPox vaccine.

Only time will tell, however. It could really go either way. It could be that MonkeyPox is going to equal COVID19 in regards to political, economic and historic significance and it could be a lulz. I will note, in passing, that during COVID that a number of political parties across the globe in democracies were rewarded by handling the pandemic well.

Theoretically, if Biden proved adept at managing any sort of large spread MonkeyPox outbreak, it might help Democrats significantly in the 2022 midterms. If Republicans allow it, of course. The fuckers.

How Likely Is It, Really, That The United States Might Have A Second Civil War?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A steady stream of people come to this blog interested in my (often drunk) ranting about the possibility of a Second American Civil War. I think we’re still too far out to know for sure one way or another.

But we’re getting there. Things are beginning to come to a head for us to know one way or another.

One thing that really muddles things is it’s the MAGA New Right that is the one so fixated on a second civil war of some sort. So, you hear the most buzz about a civil war from the one group that has the most to lose from one starting — the MAGA New Right.

Meanwhile, the Blue States are very blasé about the fact that the moment in time when they have to decide if they’re going to “bend a knee” to the MAGA New Right is rushing towards them at an alarming rate.

As such, I think we’ll know a lot more about what’s potentially going to happen after Roe is officially overturned in June – July. If the Blue States begin to freak out, then, yeah, there’s a chance that when the 2024 election is brazenly stolen because of Steve Bannon’s “administrative coup” then we may have a civil war. But if it’s a meh, then, lulz, no. We’re just going to become an autocracy.

So, I would say keep an eye on events between the moment Roe is officially overturned and January 2023 when the 2022 mid-term vote is certified. So, around February 2023, we’re going to know if we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy or if we’re pretty sure going to stumble into a civil war.

If Trump either or becomes Speaker of the House and / or decides to run for POTUS again in 2024….then, yeah. Blue States are probably going to seriously contemplate leaving the Union to the point that we may have a civil war.

Which, of course, would suck.

Alexa Chung Should Start A Podcast

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Alexa Chung is demonstrably a gorgeous woman, so it’s not like she has a “face for podcasting,” it’s just she’s very, very witty. And I think the one space in the podcasting market that’s not properly exploited at the moment is sort of the comedy-news segment.

Alexa Chung, podcaster?

You have political podcasts from Crooked Media (I know about Lovett Or Leave It) and you have the “Fly On The Wall” podcast from SNL alums David Spade and Dana Carvey, but there’s not really a Weekend Update kind of podcast that I’m aware of. Lovette or Leave it is sorta what I’m thinking of, but it’s really a political podcast that’s funny rather than a fusion of the two genres.

In fact, I think if Chung teamed up with Spade and Carvey to talk about current events that I think it would be really popular. I don’t think Spade likes to talk about politics, but I don’t think it would be too hard to convince him to change his mind.

But I do think Chung should lean into how witty she is. She always manages to make me laugh, anyway.

Finished The First Draft Of My First Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

After about four or so years of hard work, I’ve finally finished the first draft of a novel that won’t embarrass me. It’s not perfect — it has elements of a “vomit draft,” but it’s done.

Now, to pause working on it for about a month and throw myself into read and development of the other four books in the five book project. One of my biggest problems is word count. This first draft is within the 80,000 – 120,000 sweet spot at ~117,000 words, but it risks ballooning into something twice that if I don’t monitor my word count very, very carefully with the second draft.

I say this because I have way too many scenes. If I flesh out characters the way they need to be for a proper second draft, then the individual scenes are going to get a lot longer.

The only thing I can think of is to both compress the number of scenes and to re-imagine some of the novel so it stays between 80,000 and 120,000 words. I don’t think I’m going to have to change things on a structural basis too much. I think, if I’m lucky, I can just cruise through the outline I did for the first draft, tweaking and compressing things as I go.

That’s the hope, at least.

Anyway. I have a huge amount of reading to do. And now I can start working on the other five novels without as much guilt. I hope to turn my attention back to the first novel around late June.

That Sweet Meteor Of Death Can’t Come Soon Enough

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The fact that I woke up this morning to people being mad that John Mulaney had Dave Chappelle open his set in Columbus, Ohio last night is really disheartening for a number of reasons.

John Mulaney

One is, the free speech issue. And I think that’s what makes me the most angry. I totally validate if you’re angry over Chappelle’s “trans-phobic” jokes, but don’t get so mad that you don’t think he has the right to say them in the first place.

Part and parcel of that first issue is the more the Left hates on Chappelle for the contents of his stand up routine, the more you make him a icon of the Right. Which obviously is very surreal given his the general material he uses in his sets.

Dave Chappelle

But I think the overall takeway from this particular clusterfuck is not only are the expectations of GenZ when it comes to social issues far different than all the other generations, but also the every day whatever middle ground there might have once been between Left and Right is growing smaller and smaller.

Each side has to defend their side’s most extreme position as if it’s their own, even if it isn’t.

Why Things Getting Bumpy Between Now & 2025 May Be Inevitable

by Shelt Garner
@shetlgarner

If you don’t notice that we’re on the cusp of some big historical events, you must not be paying attention. Here are a few things to look at between now and Certification Day 2025

MonkeyPox
This is very much a downlow kind of potential crisis. It will only really be a crisis if the community spread we’re seeing here and there really begins to take off. So, keep an eye on the next two weeks. (It takes too weeks between when you’re infected and when you show symptoms — at least that’s the case with smallpox, as I understand it.)
GQP MAGA Fascism
The thing we have to appreciate is the MAGA New Right cancer has completely taken over the Republican Party. They have come to believe that, by definition, if they lose an election that it’s rigged. Of course, it’s going to get ironic when they finally gain power again and never let it go and the opposite side will have ever reason to believe that this is really the case. But anyway –the point is, even if we manage to punt the risk of GQP autocracy down the road a few election cycles, we aren’t going to be able to eliminate it totally — at some point we’re going to face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.
A Potential Civil War
Until the GQP-themed autocracy is finally consolidated once and for all, there is going to be a risk of a civil war. Blue States may ultimately refuse to “bend a knee” and instead try to leave the Union. Then we have a civil war. But I still doubt seriously that it going to happen. But it is, at least, possible.