Month: July 2022

What Would It Mean If The USA Became An ‘Autocracy’ When A Republican Becomes President Again

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I talk a lot about the United States now, inevitably, becoming an autocracy, but what does that mean in real terms? Well, some context first. The violent elements of the MAGA New Right get a lot of attention, to the point that even some experts assume that if there is a civil war they will be the ones to start it.

This is complete bullshit. They’re politically ascendant and they have a vested interest in keeping the peace so they get everything they want without firing a shot. MAGA talks a lot about murdering people like me in cold blood for political reasons, but that’s more just the froth of a movement that is extremely impatient to strangle American democracy.

So, the key thing you have to appreciate is there is, in fact, a chance of a civil war during the transition to autocracy, but it should it happen, it will be Blues, not Reds who start it. And it will be at the state level, not some sort of rolling political violence like what was found with the Northern Ireland “Troubles.” Anyone who suggests that either isn’t paying any attention or they have some sort of warped fever dream where they get to use their AR-15s against liberals once and for all.

Anyway, back to autocracy.

There are two paths to autocracy for the US at the moment. One is, Trump becomes president again struggles to bring autocracy but can’t because he’s too dumb and lazy to pull it off. But he does set the stage for his hand-picked successor to pull it off. Trump is a big fat tub of lard and I just can’t see him making it through his second term. Given how deranged Trump is, his veep in this scenario could be anyone from Gen. Mike Flynn to malignant goober Josh Hawley.

The OTHER way is much more direct — Ron DeSantis becomes president and he slowly and methodically strangles American democracy. It could be any one of the dozen would be autocrats within Republican ranks that does it, but DeSantis is probably the most likely non-Trump nominee.

Ok. So then what?

Nothing will change at first. But soon enough, Republicans will push through a series of “reforms” that will allow them to establish an autocracy that will change the lives of everyday Americans in practical ways. Abortion will be be outlawed nationally without any exceptions. The social safety net will be gutted. Taxes for the poor will rise, while taxes for the wealthy will be cut down to the bone.

But one not-so-obvious “reform” will be with the Federal civil service. Trump already rants about how he wants to make it so he can fire anyone he likes for any reason. This usually comes up in context of how much he hates Dr. Fauci. And given how much my Traditionalist relatives hate Dr. Fauci, anything that would let the autocrat replace him with a MAGA toadie is something they can support.

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) gestures toward a crowd of supporters of President Donald Trump gathered outside the U.S. Capitol to protest the certification of President-elect Joe Biden’s electoral college victory Jan. 6, 2021 at the US Capitol in Washington, DC. Some demonstrators later breached security and stormed the Capitol. (Francis Chung/E&E News and Politico via AP Images)

So, once the autocrat can fire civil servants for political reasons, then there really will be a Deep State — only it will be MAGA. So, even if, somehow, a Democrat won the presidency and some point in the future, the MAGA Deep State would balk at actually doing anything he or she said.

And, lastly, we have to accept that there’s going to be a Constitutional Convention at some point after 2025. Now, obviously, it is also possible that in the near term someone like DeSantis could simply be named Speaker of the House and rule the country that way. He would personally pick some toady — maybe Lara Trump? — to be POTUS and would have a “Velvet Fist” situation where she would run around being hot and dumb while the real power would reside behind the throne with Speaker DeSantis. Such shenanigans are pretty standard with autocratic states.

The last thing to go would be freedom of speech. The first way this would be changed is when plutocrat allies of the autocrat buy up or invest in major media companies so they are beholden to him. Or, if the autocrat wanted to more…autocratic…he would simply threaten to revoke their broadcast licenses until they submitted. ICE would be weaponized and would become like the FSB in Russia. The existing ICE infrastructure would be used to throw people — like me! — into camps if they cross the autocrat.

So, that’s our future. Or we have a civil war. Take your pick.

Does MAGA Really Have More Fun?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Someone on Twitter quipped that I “appear to have a miserable life” and I should become a conservative because they “have more fun.” Excluding the fact that all of that is complete bullshit, let’s investigate the idea that MAGA is “having more fun” these days.

The personal in the circle is not doing the Hitler salute, but is having a lot more fun I think.

I suppose it’s always more fun to burn things to the ground than to build them up. Building and defending institutions is hard work and so of course it’s more fun when you’re lighting a match and laughing as democracy goes up in flames. But that is the rather abstract political “fun” of destroying things.

If you want to be far more practical about things on a personal level — being conservative sucks. You’re against all the fun things of life like recreational sex even though you do it just as much, if not more than liberals.

Because you don’t mind being fucking hypocrites.

So, no. Being conservative is NOT more fun. It makes fucking cocksucker MAGA New Right people feel better to suggest this, but it’s just not fucking true. And, history has shown that autocracies ARE NOT FUN.

But conservatives aren’t thinking about that at the moment. They just want to “own the libs” on Twitter by suggesting if they only became conservative they would have more fun instead of their miserable lives of screaming at the top of their lungs that the arrival of…conservative tyranny.

Onward And Upward

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things fell through with the manuscript consultant because I’m a broke ass motherfucker. I just couldn’t afford what she was asking when it came to looking over my outline. And, yet, I’m actually writing a solid draft now and I don’t really need any help until I finish it.

When I finish this draft, then, THEN I’m going to need some help.

I still don’t know if this is a first or second draft. In some ways, it’s a first draft and in some ways its a second draft. But I’m reasonable sure that I’m going to be able to zoom through this latest outline and wrap up a draft of some sort in a few months.

Then I will size things up and decide if I feel comfortable with looking for beta readers (and being a beta reader) or if I need to re-write everything again before I do that.

Annie Shapiro, left, with me way back when in Seoul. Ms. Shapiro is the inspiration for an important character in this series I’ve come up with.

And, of course, in the back of my mind, there’s the five other novels I want to write in this same universe. I may dabble in working on those other novels should it become clear that I’ve actually produced a really good second draft and not a really good first draft of the first book in the series.

One thing I definitely need to do is read more. A lot more. But I’m so busy producing content that it’s really difficult for me to consume it. Yet I need to do that. I really do.

Anyway, I’ve come up with a really interesting universe. I think the overarching arc of the planned six novels on a macro scale is really, really engaging. But I have so much work ahead of me. Wish me luck.

I Need To Stop Overthinking This Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All systems are go for things to go really fast with this novel now. I still need to do a lot of reading and re-reading, but I’m well on my way to simply finishing a solid draft of A Novel. I’m a little insecure about how I haven’t done enough research or don’t know the motivation of my characters well enough, but the basic framework of A Novel is complete.

So, I really need to just shut up and write. I need to just get this thing done. I am well aware that I have written and talked way, way, way, way too much about this project but I’m 100% extroverted and have no one to talk to. So, lulz, you get this.

Anyway, I feel like I have something of a deadline so I need to throw myself at this work and try to get as much done as possible within the next month. It’s a huge challenge, but I like the idea of pulling off something that might seem impossible.

Of course, I have a planned five additional novels to work on, but that’s part of a very delusional dream on my part. But the key thing is — once I finish a sold second draft then I will definitely have the self confidence to think I can write five more novels in the same universe.

But, I’m not getting any younger. I need to hurry up. Even though I know I’m now old enough that if I should happen to get the success I feel I can, all the stories about being a big time novelist will be framed in the context of, “Jesus, this guy was old when he became famous.”

Fuck.

It Appears The United States’ Decent Into Autocracy Is A Foregone Conclusion

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve pretty much seen enough — rather than have any sort of civil war, the United States is going to become a Hungary-style autocracy. I say this because the American center-Left has proven itself to be complete ineffectual. Combine this with how the entire edifice of the Republican Party is now fascist and I just don’t see how we don’t slouch our way into autocracy at some point after 2025.

Things won’t change initially, of course. But gradually, in fits and starts someone like a President DeSantis is going to gradually throttle what’s left of traditional American democracy.

And we’re going to let it happen with our eyes wide open. There will be a lot of gnashing of teeth on the part of Twitter liberals as all of this happens, but in the end they’re simply going to leave the country — I predict a least 1 million in the first few years.

Now, this is not an abstract to me. I’m a loudmouth crank who is often drunk and as our new autocrat consolidates power it is inevitable — because form follows function — that even that most prized of American rights, freedom of speech, will no longer exist.

All my hysterical predictions from the first Trump Administration will happen, just a number of years after I initially predicted them. Remember, the people who voted for orange dingus in 2016 wanted an autocrat. Trump has shown how weak America’s democratic institutions are and as such, once someone like DeSantis is POTUS they will know they can get away with some pretty white knuckled autocracy and people will abide by it.

The great irony is, of course, that the MAGA New Right is hysterical about how much they want to murder people like me in cold blood for political reasons that they — and a lot of third party observers — get wrapped up in the fanciful idea that Reds will start some sort of civil war.

This is a very dumb belief. Reds have no reason to start a civil war and it would be a massive, historic self-own on their part if they did such a thing. They just have a vested interest in keeping the peace so they can inevitably consolidate power without firing a shot.

There, are, any number of scenarios you could think up were we have a civil war but most of them require some pretty massive screw ups on the part of the MAGA New Right. If there is a Second American Civil War, it’s going to happen when Blue States leave the Union en masse.

The only reason why I can’t 100% predict there won’t be a civil war is, lulz, I can’t predict the future and any number of totally unexpected things could happen that might force Blue States to feel they have no other option but to leave the Union through a “National Divorce” and, as such, precipitate a civil war.

But, for the time being, I would advise you to get ready for A Very American Autocracy. The center-Left is fiddling while American democracy burns by being “woke” and getting way too wrapped up in things like pronouns. Autocracy is really, really popular in the United States at the moment and, as such, when the next Republican becomes president, that’s all she wrote for the American birthright of democracy.

Things Should Now Move Really Fast With This New Draft Of The First Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Two things are working towards speeding up the process of writing this either really good first draft or modestly good second draft — I have a really stable outline that’s finished and fleshed out and I have something of a deadline now.

Back when I was young, cute and people cared.

I have given my working outline to a manuscript consultant, but she won’t be reading it until mid-August. So, I have a lot of incitive to wrap up this draft of the novel as quickly as possible.

If I could finish this draft in about a month so I could have it finished when I find out the manuscript consultant’s opinion of the outline, that would help sooooo much when it came to figuring out what happens next. My fear is, of course, that through the process of working my way through this outline that either the whole thing collapses again or it changes so much that it won’t be anywhere like what she looked at.

But I hope to sprint as fast as I can over the next month. I like having a deadline and writing a whole novel in a month isn’t impossible. Philip K. Dick did it all the time, but he was on crank. And I’m still very delusional about this whole process so it would make a lot of sense for me to focus on seeing if I can finish the novel that fast.

The Case For Zendaya to Be The New Ripley In a Hard Reboot Of The Alien Franchise — Hear Me Out

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The major scifi franchises have been so strip mined that they need to either be allowed to lay fallow for a few years (maybe a decade) or they need to be totally and completely rebooted.

I’ve written about this before, but I’m drunk, feeling inspired and need to let off some non-novel related creativity so you get this post.

Ok, the only way this works is if you give Zendaya a three picture deal from the beginning. Then find the best mainstream horror director you can find and do the same thing to ensure consistency of tone across the three movies. One key thing to remember is Zendaya is tall like the original Ripley, Sigourney Weaver. So it would be easy to give the shot of Ripley in her underwear that is so famous from the first film.

Anyway, you totally reboot the franchise from the ground up, with the third movie being set on an Earth overrun by Xenomorphs. I think the thing a lot of people don’t realize is there is an entire generation of people who are oblivious to the cultural significance of the Alien movies and won’t blink an eye if they’re hard rebooted.

A lot of Olds will try to gatekeep the movies, obviously, but lulz.

‘Generation DeSantis’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I like to say that if every election your nation have is existential, then maybe you’re not really a democracy anymore. Well, there are so many would-be autocrats running around within Republican ranks at the moment who would throttle American democracy once elected that it’s hard to manage them all.

Ron DeSantis

But the one that my Traditionalist relatives love, love, love, love is Ron DeSantis, to the point that they tell me in a very snarky, asshole way that they want to “vote for him three times” when the time comes.

The reason DeSantis (and to some extent Tucker Carlson) is so dangerous is he is far smoother than Trump. He’s an opportunist. Trump was a stress test on our democratic institutions and they failed. A lot. So all DeSantis has to do is just get elected and the rest takes care of itself. The Republican Party is fascist and they will be more than happy to pass enabling acts that will allow DeSantis to purge the government of the “deep state.” They will look the other way when he threatens the broadcast licenses of major media companies and, a such, neuters them.

At the moment, follow is pretty much a foregone conclusion. DeSantis becomes president, becomes our first autocrat changes the Constitution via a Constitutional Convention and weaponizes ICE along the way. That’s it. That’s America’s future.

In fact, I would go so far as to say the only reason why I have any doubt that this is, in fact, our future is I can’t predict the future and it hasn’t happened yet. Otherwise, it’s just reality that is in the future.

So, what could go wrong?

The most obvious obstacle with Generation DeSantis becoming a reality is Trump. If Trump refuses to step aside and DeSantis manages to draw first blood, then all the other would-be autocrats lurking around would jump on Trump, too.

Then the best DeSantis can hope for is to be Trump’s veep. He would still be very well positioned to be our first true autocrat. BUT, we have to remember that Trump is so stupid and lazy that he could, single-handedly start a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025.

So, on one hand, we have an autocratic DeSantis future and on the other we have civil war.

Is Tucker Carlson Running For President?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Everyone’s favorite bowtie fascist Tucker Carlson went to Iowa recently and makes one think — is he running? I can tell you from empirical evidence that he is EXTREMELY POPULAR with Traditionalists who are Good Germans but who are uneasy with Trump.

So it’s very logical for Carlson to at least ponder seriously the idea of running for POTUS. In a sense, Carlson is more Trump than Trump because he’s smarter and better educated so he can be even more white nationalist in an overt manner than Trump but say it in such a way that he can get away with it.

Now, some context.

Trump is such an idiot and something of a Frankenstein’s Monster that he refuses to retire and let DeSantis or whomever fight it out with Carlson to see who will be the fascist that makes America officially an autocratic state. So, there are two options.

One, Trump simply wades back into the race for president and politically cockblocks everyone else. The other option is there is a massive pitched battle between Trump, DeSantis and a few other would be autocrats like Tucker Carlson. Then, it’s a very last man (or woman) standing situation. To the point that there MIGHT be a brokered Republican convention which would be more about who would be Trump’s veep than anything else.

I don’t think enough people appreciate how important Trump’s selection of veep will be. Trump is old and fat and so out of shape that it’s doubtful he will make it through his second term. As such, if Trump goes nuts and picks, say, someone like Mike Flynn to be his veep — something I’ve been told on Twitter will never, ever happen — then we could really be up shit creek without a paddle.

Anyway, don’t sleep on Tucker Carlson. Even with Trump running around running for POTUS during the 2024 cycle, Carlson is SO popular that he still has a pretty decent chance of winning the nomination and, as such, the presidency. I mean, we’re never going to have another free and fair election unless there’s a civil war so, lulz, if you win the Republican nomination you’re POTUS.

Ugh.

Folks, America Has Some Serious Problems

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I talk to my Traditionalist relatives and when they’re not talking about their extreme abstract fears of being personally “canceled” by the woke cancel culture mob just for being conservative — they believe that that very same woke cancel culture mob is trying to turn everyone gay.

In fact, I have to spend 10 minutes wading through their homophobic talking points distilled from Fox News and various rabidly conservative podcasts before we can even talk about the issues of the day. Relative to Traditionalists, the “homosexual agenda” has grow so absolutely powerful that no one can escape its maw.

Traditionalists think everyone who isn’t a Traditionalists is either gay or about to become gay or is “grooming” little tykes to become gay in the not so distant future.

I guess what it all boils down to is the center-Left has a branding problem. A serious one. MAGA has successfully painted their opposition as either “groomers’ or a “woke cancel culture mob” to the people who would otherwise serve as a firebreak against fascists: Traditionalists. When Traditionalists become Good Germans, your nation has a serious fucking problem on its hands.

But that’s where we are.

As I’ve written before, it definitely seems as though Americans have collectively just given up. We’re slouching towards either autocracy or civil war. We’re in a post-accountability era and, as such, that’s post truth. If you’re post truth, you’re pre-fascist. And only because officially becoming an autocratic state would bump up against American self-perception in a big way to I still have any doubts about us becoming an autocracy.

Otherwise, all systems are go for us to become a Hungary – Turkey style autocracy and maybe even drift towards being a Russian clone on a political basis. The center-Left is so weak, so focused on identity politics driven by the latest outraged tweet that we’re all just fucked. Some of it is out of the center-Left’s hands because of macro trends, and some of it is unforced errors.

Anyway. Good luck, I guess?