Month: February 2024

It’s Hard To Defeat A Political Cult Of Personality

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Either America turns all Red in 2024, or we there’s some sort of civil war / revolution and we fight it out see if Blues can win. I say this because there is a Hitleresque cult of personality that surrounds Trump at this point that is really destabilizing the country.

I can’t predict the future, but I find it really, really hard to imagine a scenario whereby we just muddle through like we always otherwise do. It seems like we’re careening towards a very, very dark future. One where we either become a MAGA-themed autocracy or we collapse into a type of political violence not seen since the Civil War.

I really hope neither one of those things happen.

But I’m a realist. As such, it definitely SEEMS like the greatest country in human history is on the cusp of a significant change one way or another in the very near future. And all because of “vibes.”

All because conservatives are scared of women, gays and brown people. Everything is so fucked up. And I still believe if Trump gets a second term that he will be so bad at his job of being an autocrat that he might be deposed in some way.

I only say this because if Trump goes full tyrant in some sort of ham-handed manner, then, yikes. It definitely seems as though we’re totally and completely fucked.

I’m Worried About The 2024 Election

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is a quirk of the American Constitutional system that scares the ever living beejeebas out of me and that is if no one person wins the Electoral College outright that the House and Senate pick from the top THREE vote getters.

Horace Greeley

Now, you may say, lulz, so what.

But there are two issues you have to remember.

One is, both Trump and Biden are old as fuck. Second, when Horace Greeley died after the 1872 election his electoral votes were distributed amongst the other people who ran.

If, God forbid, either Trump or Biden — or both! — were knocked out of the election after the 2024 election happened….Holy Shit. Total fucking chaos. Because who what might happen to the veep of whichever candidate has shuffled off this mortal coil?

There is one added complication — not only would the House pick from the top three candidates, but each state gets only one vote made up of state delegations. Talk about potential shenanigans. Massive chaos and horse trading. The country is already on edge as it is, bullshit like this could push us over the edge.

This is all very speculative. There’s every reason to believe we won’t have to worry about any of is because we’ll be so busy worrying about if we’re going to become an autocracy or have a revolution / civil war.

A Little Bit Of A Creative Reset

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Every once in a while, I need to just chill out for a few days. In an ideal world, I would go to New York City on the Chinatown bus and walk around. But, alas, I’m very, very poor these days.

So, I’m just going to turn my attention to consuming media, rather than trying to churn it out. And I may try to focus on some of my side projects for a few days as well.

I know I have a really great concept on my hands at the moment, but I also know that I’m kind of “running hot.” I don’t want to burn myself out. So, chill out it is.

I going to TRY to step outside my comfort zone and try to watch things that I just otherwise wouldn’t be all that interested in consuming. And read some stuff, too.

I Don’t Think Believing It’s Possible America Will Fall Into Revolution & Civil War Because of Tyrant Trump is ‘Optimism Bias’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m still smarting over some fucking Twitter liberal putting me on blast for simply believing that it won’t be the of the story if Trump wins re-election in the fall. This nattering nabob of negativism seems to think that our only choice is to “vote harder” and it’s a foregone conclusion that we’ll turn into German 1933 the moment Trump has power again.

I find this extremely aggravating. I don’t think it’s “optimistic” to suggest that SOME SORT of severe reaction will happen within Blue parts of the USA if Trump goes full tyrant. Seems pretty dark to me. Now, obviously, if Trump goes full tyrant, there’s a chance that about 1 million smug Twitter liberals will leave the country.

But that still leaves a shit ton of very angry Blues spread across the third largest nation by geography and population. I don’t want to have to depose the POTUS in a revolution then have to worry about a civil war when Red States leave the Union in protest.

That would not be fun or cool or “optimistic.”

Anyway. I am not prepared to give up if Trump wins. For me, it won’t be the end of the story, it will be a new beginning in which we will all be tested and forced to figure out what we will risk our lives and scared honor IN THE REAL WORLD to protect.

Not advocating anything.

The Novel Is Getting Really Good

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The biggest problem I have with this novel at the moment is there is a long lead up until the murder happens. I’m tempted to have a secondary body show up in the first act, just to at last have SOMETHING happen.

Fuck. No more drinking for me.

And, yet, a lot does happen in the first act — a lot of sexxy time, if nothing else — that I think I can fake out readers long enough that when the body shows up that people won’t feel like it’s been a labor to get there. A lot of interesting things happen in the first act that help develop the various characters in the novel.

I keep wondering why it’s taking me so long. I think some of it comes from how I have some very arbitrary rules in my mind and that causes me to have to re-write a lot of copy that maybe I don’t have to. And, of course, I keep forking the story over and over again which causes a cascading series of events whereby I have rewrite copy to accommodate the new strategic version of the story.

A novel with the success of The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo is the dream.

But, in general, the story is turning out really well. I have a system setup whereby I edit about once a day and then revise the story from there. I know things are getting really good with this novel because I’m itch to show a big chunk of it to someone again.

It’s so difficult to get ANYONE to read ANY of a novel for free. And, at the moment, I’m very, very broke.

America Is On Track To Be A Hungary-Style Autocratic State When The Next Republican Becomes POTUS….But For Ding-Dong Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On a macro, structural basis, the “vibes” that are tearing the United States apart at the moment all go back to white people being unhappy with demographic trends. Everything from abortion to immigration boils down to — not enough sweet, sweet little white babies being born for the liking of racist, misogynistic white people who hate the browning of America and the mainstreaming of feminist ideals.

In a sense, we probably should just accept our fate — the moment ANY Republican is president, the US is going to become a Hungary-style autocratic state. ANY Republican president, no matter who that might be, will ignore democratic norms and twist and warp the wording of the Constitution to get what they want — a white Christian ethnostate.

And, yet, there is one person who might stop that from happening — malignant ding-dong Trump.

The reason why I suggest this is Trump is so bad at actually governing that given the opportunity to be an autocrat, there’s a pretty good chance that he will so piss everyone off that he could very well be deposed. (I’m not advocating anything!)

Any other Republican in his position could easily and peacefully transition the US into an autocratic state. But Trump. Oh boy. He is going to thrash around to the point that even the people who would be the core of his support — Traditionalists who would otherwise be “Good Americans” — might sit up and take notice.

It took Putin a few years to move Russia into the autocratic state it is now. Trump is so dumb and lazy — and so impatient — that he could just kind of freak out from the moment he’s in office to the point that even your most laid back (white) Traditionalists might, just might at least look the other way if there was some sort of General Strike to bring down Trump.

As of right now, at least, it definitely looks like late 2024, early 2025 is going to s u c k.

It’s Like We’ve Given Up

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to tell you, folks, other than maybe “Watch out for that last step.” Now, in February of 2024, it definitely seems as though the only way we prevent Trump from being POTUS again is some sort of Black Swan event that I just can’t predict.

I continue to believe that people are looking at the potential of a Second Trump Administration all wrong. It will be so tyrannical and such an aberration compared to anything we’ve ever seen before that I don’t think it’s “optimism bias” to think the reaction to Trump’s ham-handed tyranny could be just as unprecedented.

As I keep saying, America 2025 is NOT Germany 1933.

At a minimum, it will take time for Trump to build out an SA-like infrastructure to remind Blues to keep their heads down and mouths shut. I keep musing on the idea that Trump is somehow deposed in a Glorious Revolution, then that, in turn prompts a Second American Civil War.

That, in turn, causes World War 3.

And, yet, I just can’t predict the future. No one can. And there is every reason to believe that either Biden is peacefully re-elected, or Trump really does get to be a tyrannical autocrat and we all just lulz it.

Though I do think that about 1 million smug Twitter liberals will leave the country once it becomes clear that Trump is actually going to do what he was elected to do in 2016 — be an autocrat.

Why I’m Really Worried About The United States In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A number of things are coming together at the same time to destabilize the United States. Everything from negative polarization to income inequality is eating away at the very fabric of the greatest nation in world history.

I just don’t know if we’re going to make it through the 2024 presidential silly season.

There is every reason to believe we will, but even if we do, we could very well peacefully slide into autocracy under a second Trump Administration. They key thing for me is the Republican Party wants an autocratic white Christian ethnostate sooooo fucking bad that, in a sense, Trump is all that stands in the way of the getting their goal.

Not because he’ll lose, but because if he wins, he could very well rile everyone up so much in the ham-handed manner in which he tries to establish that autocratic white Christian ethnostate that there’s a “Glorious Revolution” by Blues and he’s deposed — not that I’m advocating anything!

Anyway. A lot is going wrong in the US right now. But for my worst fears to come true — that the US would collapse into revolution and / or civil war — a lot more shit would have to go wrong.

Hopefully, at a minimum, we’ll just peacefully turn into an autocracy and I’ll figure out some way to leave the country.

News In Our ‘Her’ Future

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t think we’re prepared for how news gathering and consumption will be transformed when AI totally commoditized and personalized. When we reach the future of the movie “Her” it seems as though the Web as we know it will implode into a Singularity.

Our personal digital assistances will know us so well that they will answer questions before we ask them. And rather than having to go to The New York Times, the Web will just be a bunch of different PDAs talking to each other all the time.

I just don’t even know if the print Web will exist by 2030.

It definitely will be interesting to see how everything plays out. But the key thing we have to appreciate is a lot of the problems that the news industry has at the moment might be seen as rather quaint.

Everything will be disrupted to the point that the very questions we ask and the very problems we have to deal with will be very, very different.

Slow & Steady Wins The Race

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The novel is getting really, really good. It’s just taking a lot longer than I would prefer for me to get past the thrashing around in the water phase of things. But I am slowly but surely getting close to the second act.

The dream is to write a novel as successful as The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo.

Of course, I still find myself worried about how long the whole thing is going to be.

And, of course, I still need to work on some backup stories in case disaster strikes.

But, in general, not only does the novel flow really well, but there is an ebb and flow to things that I think will appeal to readers.

It does help that I’ve stopped drinking entirely. I hate being a dry drunk, but hopefully — hopefully — I will be able to focus structuring my life in a much better way.

I have to stop pissing my life and time away by daydreaming so much.