Category: Cold Civil War

Of Bill Maher & Fox News

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Bill Maher these days is someone who Fox News loves, loves, loves to hold up and say, “If you’ve lost Bill Maher…” when that’s just fucking bullshit. Maher is a libertarian who is more anti-MAGA than he is center-Left.

Yet the obsession that the MAGA New Right has with pointing out Maher’s disillusionment with some elements of the center-Left, especially the “woke cancel culture mob” aspect of it, grows more and more grating by the moment. Which, of course, is the point — Fox News wants to smugly troll the center-Left by alleging that one of the Left’s own has abandoned them.

This is complete bullshit.

I will note, in passing, that while I’m definitely not a libertarian, I do share with Maher one thing: I’m far more anti-MAGA than I am Leftist. In fact, there are parts of the Left that I fucking hate. And, yet, the center-Left, in general, is far, far more fact based than the modern American center-Right and, as such, that particular choice has been made for me.

Anyway, lulz.

It’s not like we can do anything about any of this. The two sides are receding from each other at a historic rate. America is either going to slip peacefully into an autocracy or we’re going to have a civil war.

What The Fuck Is Going On With MonkeyPox?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is not meant to be an informative post so much as a mulling of what is generally known and what it might mean. When it comes to MonkeyPox, we have something of a medical mystery on our hands. It could be this all just a lulz and it could mean that there is community spread of MonkeyPox for some reason that we don’t understand yet.

I’m worried.

There are some things we have to understand before going any further — MonkeyPox is not deadly and we have a vaccine. But, from what I can tell, if you get it you’re not doing anything productive for a while. And it’s scary looking, so that, unto itself could be enough to cause people to freak out if, for some reason, MonkeyPox is now more transmittable.

The fear is, of course, that the same political dynamic that hampered our abiilty to slow the spread of COVID will pop up with MonkeyPox. But the thing that has me worried the most is, something weird is going on with MonkeyPox — it seems, at least, to be spreading a lot easier than it should.

It seems, a least, that there is community spread like we saw in the early days of COVID. I would suggest you keep an eye on celebrities — if a celebrity catches MonkeyPox and admits it like Tom Hanks did, that could cause the US to shut down for a while like COVID did in the early days — even with the existence of a MonkeyPox vaccine.

Only time will tell, however. It could really go either way. It could be that MonkeyPox is going to equal COVID19 in regards to political, economic and historic significance and it could be a lulz. I will note, in passing, that during COVID that a number of political parties across the globe in democracies were rewarded by handling the pandemic well.

Theoretically, if Biden proved adept at managing any sort of large spread MonkeyPox outbreak, it might help Democrats significantly in the 2022 midterms. If Republicans allow it, of course. The fuckers.

How Likely Is It, Really, That The United States Might Have A Second Civil War?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A steady stream of people come to this blog interested in my (often drunk) ranting about the possibility of a Second American Civil War. I think we’re still too far out to know for sure one way or another.

But we’re getting there. Things are beginning to come to a head for us to know one way or another.

One thing that really muddles things is it’s the MAGA New Right that is the one so fixated on a second civil war of some sort. So, you hear the most buzz about a civil war from the one group that has the most to lose from one starting — the MAGA New Right.

Meanwhile, the Blue States are very blasé about the fact that the moment in time when they have to decide if they’re going to “bend a knee” to the MAGA New Right is rushing towards them at an alarming rate.

As such, I think we’ll know a lot more about what’s potentially going to happen after Roe is officially overturned in June – July. If the Blue States begin to freak out, then, yeah, there’s a chance that when the 2024 election is brazenly stolen because of Steve Bannon’s “administrative coup” then we may have a civil war. But if it’s a meh, then, lulz, no. We’re just going to become an autocracy.

So, I would say keep an eye on events between the moment Roe is officially overturned and January 2023 when the 2022 mid-term vote is certified. So, around February 2023, we’re going to know if we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy or if we’re pretty sure going to stumble into a civil war.

If Trump either or becomes Speaker of the House and / or decides to run for POTUS again in 2024….then, yeah. Blue States are probably going to seriously contemplate leaving the Union to the point that we may have a civil war.

Which, of course, would suck.

Why Things Getting Bumpy Between Now & 2025 May Be Inevitable

by Shelt Garner
@shetlgarner

If you don’t notice that we’re on the cusp of some big historical events, you must not be paying attention. Here are a few things to look at between now and Certification Day 2025

MonkeyPox
This is very much a downlow kind of potential crisis. It will only really be a crisis if the community spread we’re seeing here and there really begins to take off. So, keep an eye on the next two weeks. (It takes too weeks between when you’re infected and when you show symptoms — at least that’s the case with smallpox, as I understand it.)
GQP MAGA Fascism
The thing we have to appreciate is the MAGA New Right cancer has completely taken over the Republican Party. They have come to believe that, by definition, if they lose an election that it’s rigged. Of course, it’s going to get ironic when they finally gain power again and never let it go and the opposite side will have ever reason to believe that this is really the case. But anyway –the point is, even if we manage to punt the risk of GQP autocracy down the road a few election cycles, we aren’t going to be able to eliminate it totally — at some point we’re going to face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.
A Potential Civil War
Until the GQP-themed autocracy is finally consolidated once and for all, there is going to be a risk of a civil war. Blue States may ultimately refuse to “bend a knee” and instead try to leave the Union. Then we have a civil war. But I still doubt seriously that it going to happen. But it is, at least, possible.

Some Theories For The Strange Things Happening In My Webstats

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It makes no sense whatsoever that anyone from Automattic would give a shit about me. Why would the people who run my publishing software care about what I’m writing on this obscure Website? So, let’s go through the theories.

1.) I’m Going To Be Deplatformed Soon
This theory is that all my drunk ranting has caught the attention of someone at Automattic (or maybe Mueller, She Wrote) and they’re going to deplatform me because of it. All my drunk ranting got me deplatformed from Facebook, so I guess it’s possible it could happen here, too.
2) I’m Going To Be Featured Somehow
With this theory it’s the opposite — all my ranting is interesting and, as such, I’m going to be praised somehow by Automattic for using their platform to be thought provoking.


3) I’m Looking At Things Wrong
The last theory is it isn’t anyone from Automattic at all, but rather someone is simply accessing my content in such a way that it registers with my Webstat software as the Automattic domain name being the point of access. This is the most interesting of the theories. Who could it be? I don’t know. NSA? CIA? Someone from Hollywood interested in my ramblings about my novel now that I’m getting closer to wrapping up the first draft of the first novel?

Who knows.

Is AOC Running For President?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, well, well, AOC is engaged. I’m quite pleased and I wish the couple well. But the pragmatic political observer in me has to smirk — I think AOC may run for POTUS in 2024 should the opportunity arise.

Now, some caveats

One is, I don’t know anything and, as a CIS white male, you should aggressively ignore me. Only an intersectional feminist woman of color can properly talk about the complexities of AOC getting engaged in the context of her political career.

So, if I was smart, I would either a) not write this post or b) stop here.

But, guess what, I’m a dumbass. So I’m going to not only keep going but also address the pink elephant in the room — if AOC wants to be POTUS, she probably needs to have a baby between now and November 2024. I say this as a long-time AOC supporter.

I’m just being realistic.

I mean, if HRC can have one (1) baby, then I don’t think it’s too much to believe that AOC will have one baby simply so the nutjobs on the far Right can’t attack her for not knowing the joys of motherhood.

Anyway. Ignore me. But I had to get that off my chest. I hope AOC runs — and wins — in 2024 (if the opportunity so arises.) And if not POTUS, maybe she can be someone’s veep.

MAGA’s Asymmetrical Attack On American Democracy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing that so many Twitter liberals miss is we face a long term, structural problem when it comes to MAGA. They don’t to win every election, they just have to win enough elections to destroy American democracy. Which, if we were really all that honest, we would admit doesn’t even exist anymore.

We’re an anocracy. Or, in other words, an autocracy without an autocrat.

So, we’re either going to have a civil war or turn into an autocracy. At the moment, I think we’re just going to peacefully turn into a full blow autocracy because the entire system is designed to keep people sedate and placated. It happened in 2000 and when Republicans brazenly steal the 2024 election, it will happen again.

And that will be that.

There will be the occasional huge protest over this or that thing, but in general, they will be as meaningless in the United States as they are currently in Russia. So, lulz.

If you have the means, get out the country. It would be comforting to think that maybe the center-Left might at least put up some sort of struggle…but it definitely looks as though that isn’t going to happen.

Oh well.

Slouching Towards Autocracy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The rise of the celebrity candidate was mentioned in Ready: Player One when it’s mentioned off handedly that presidents were in the the future reality TV stars and so forth.

Oswald Mosley

Or, put another way, were witnessing huge swaths of the American government becoming useless if Republicans are in power. I’ve called this the “Mosleyification” of the Republican Party and I think that’s what’s going on. We’ve already seen this at the height of Trumplandia during the 2017 – 2019 timeframe.

So that’s the future we’re careening into. After Blue States “bend a knee” to Red States, we’ll gradually become no different than Russia. But let me be clear — Trump is too lazy and too much of an idiot for him to successfully turn us in to an autocracy.

But whomever his handpicked successor is, that person will be the person to successfully transition our current anocracy into an autocracy. Now, obviously, there is a risk of the other option happening, which would be a civil war. I don’t want that and I don’t think that’s going to happen.

Yet it is something to think about.

What We Can Learn From Watergate About The Shitshow That Is Trumplandia

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m reading the new history of Watergate and it’s really, really good. I hope to learn how Watergate is different from the modern post-accountability era of Trumplandia that we currently live in.

Nixon, in the end, at least had, like, shame and shit. But Trump and his ilk are post-shame and because the people who brought Nixon down — the people I call conservative “Traditionalists” are totally co-oped by the fascists MAGA…lulz. We’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked.

Instead of seeing the traditional arc of a Washington scandal that started with Watergate, with Trumplandia we see the system has failed us. No one is going to save us, no matter how often some Blue Check liberal writes a long, breathless Twitter thread meant to leave us with the idea that the system is going to work.

It’s not. The system isn’t working. There’s no hope. No one and no thing is going to save us. We have to accept that we’re either going to have a fucking civil war or we’re going to slip into autocracy without putting up any struggle at all.

Anyone with any “hope” of the system working — as it allegedly did with Nixon — is a fucking fool and I struggle to understand how you look at yourself in the mirror in the morning. You should hang your head in shame.

The system didn’t REALLY work with Nixon because he quit before it could. Had he let the system work and allowed himself to be impeached and convicted, I think, in the end, we would have been a lot better off. The crazy thing is the absolute worst elements of the Nixon Whitehouse are now tame compared to how fucking bonkers the modern GQP is now.

There are a dozen people — men and women — who want to be Trump’s autocratic successor. And we’re not going to do a damn thing to stop them. I don’t want a civil war — hell, I hate conflict of any sort — but it’s rather embarrassing that we won’t even put up a struggle at all when our democracy (which is now an anocracy) is finally snuffed out.

Anyway. I haven’t gotten very far in the Watergate history. But I am moving quite quickly. It’s really well written.

Mike Pence Is Such A Coward

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The brass ring is right there for Mike Pence and he’s such a fucking coward that he won’t grab it. All he has to do is become a #NeverTrumper and he instantly becomes a darling of the center-Left to the point that there will be talk of him heading some sort of “Unity Ticket” in 2024.

Or not. Don’t listen to me. I’m just some doofus in the rural part of a flyover state.

But the case could be made that if Pence did some domestic realpolitik assessments in his mind that it would be clear that the only way he will ever and I mean EVER become politically relevant again is to become a #Never Trumper. And as Liz Cheney has shown, you don’t even have to change your otherwise antediluvian conservative views.

He would get a pass from the center-Left for all his other brutish conservative views simply because he turned his back on Trump and MAGA. He already has the means, motive and opportunity to do it and…yet he won’t do it. He is beginning to kind of do things on the edges, but in general he’s still towing the MAGA line.

I will note, however, that if there is some sort of Second American Civil War that Pence definitely might change his mind on being MAGA. In fact, I would go so far as to say him jumping ship to Blue State leadership would be a sign that we’re about to have a second American civil war.

Yet, of course, I still am reluctant to believe we’re going to have a civil war in the first place, even though it’s a definite possibility. Blue States just don’t have it in them to leave the Union, especially given their lack in leadership — unless, of course, someone like Mike Pence becomes over to their side.