Category: Cold Civil War

The Siege of Austin & Other Second American Civil War Nightmares

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me again say, I can’t predict the future. There is every reason to believe that in the end, the US will simply shrug and we either have four more years of Biden or we turn into a MAGA America First nightmare and it’s all a lulz.

But because I like to make my abstract fears concrete, let’s really think about the nuts and bolts of a possible Second American Civil War starting in late 2024, early 2025.

The state we should keep an eye on in this situation is Texas. The state is already an autocratic MAGA bastion, and so it makes a lot of sense that if Red States feel they need to bounce that Texas would be the first state to do it. Tradition would suggest that South Carolina might be the first out the door, but there are so many African Americans in the state….whoa buddy…that, in practical terms might not be as sure a thing.

But Texas has just the right demographic composition that if Trump lost in 2024, or if he won then went full tyrant in 2025 and was deposed, they seem to be the state that would call up a snap secessionist convention on the fly. Now, there are some obvious complications to this idea. On the ground, Texas — as I understand — is s l o w l y — shifting to Purple.

As such, even if Texas MAGA Nazis were able to sucker punch the populace by calling up a Secessionist Convention overnight, there would be some pretty dire consequences going forward. You could easily imagine a scenario where the state capital of Austin went full Paris Commune on the rest of the state and there was some sort of Siege of Austin.

Ok, let’s also think about how things might play out with other Red States. I think pretty much all the low population Red States of the Mountain area would flee the Union the moment Texas made it clear they were serious. Utah is one of those states that could go either way because it’s a hotbed of NeverTrump support…but one of its Senators is Mike Lee, so lulz?

Now we get to even MORE complication. States like Oregon and Virginia would likely implode because of how diverse they are. If we started to have a serious secessionist crisis, there would be A LOT of self-selection across the country as people bounced to states that better fit their own personal political views. And then, of course, there is the issue of places like Austin and other Blue dots in Red States that would either be razed by Red forces or see a huge amount of depopulation as their political difference became untenable.

And don’t even get me started about my fears of Trump going Pol Pot on us an emptying the “Godless cities” so American Killing Fields can be filled with the bodies of Blues.

And, remember, none of this will happen in a geopolitical vacuum. World War 3 would start the moment it became clear that the US was too pre-occupied blowing itself up to do anything about various regional conflicts around the globe. What’s more, if any sort of Second American Civil War dragged out long enough, then the outside world would begin to get involved, too.

I could totally see the DPRK dropping a few H-bombs on the US to kick us while we’re down.

Anyway, if things get so bad that we have states leaving the Union….yikes. May God have mercy on our souls.

The Moralistic State: Of Christians & The Secularization Of America

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I was raised in the church and have a lot of relatives who are still Christians, so I know all about how alienated many modern conservative Christians feel. They tend to think that all of America’s problems could be solved if everyone turned to Jesus.

While I suppose this is true, some of my relatives really, really wanted a white Christian ethnostate without thinking about the consequences of doing such a thing. They want whites and men on top and they want there to be only one gender and none of this “pronouns” business.

They don’t have a problem with people being gay, but they should be quiet about it. And if pressed, they probably wouldn’t have a problem with someone getting an abortion as long as it was a deep personal shame that the person never spoke of to anyone.

What the Christians I know seem to want is to replace the Administrative State with the Moralistic State. They think taxation is theft and they want a total ban on abortion, birth control in general and online porn. They want to gut the modern safety net, even as they require any human egg that is fertilized by sperm to be carried to term, damn whatever horrific life the child may have once they’re born.

With that it in mind, that is yet more indication that the U.S. is tearing itself apart and there is a better-than-zero-sum chance that there will be a civil war (Reds if Trump loses) or a revolution (Blues if Trump wins.)

And, yet, there is every reason to believe that just like in 2020, somehow we’ll find an off ramp, a “third way” that allows us to punt our problems down the road again. And, hell, who knows, maybe the fabric of the nation is strong enough that no matter what, we’ll muddle through in some way and all my political dystopian hellscapes will seem rather amusing.

I really, really want that to happen.

If some of the things I fear will happen, happen, it will s u c k.

I’m Just About To Enter The Second Act Of The ‘Alpha Release’ Of The Third Draft Of My First Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Months after I started working on the first act of the third draft of my first novel, I am at last about to enter the second act. This is important because I know this part of the story far, far better.

Though there are some structural elements to the novel I’ve had to change in the rest of the novel, things SHOULD move very, very fast now. I should be able to come out with an Alpha Release of the third draft no later than April. Then I will go through and do an edit of it so the Beta Release is actually coherent enough that I can maybe find some professional to read it and help me take it to the next level.

And, yet, I am very, very poor, so…I don’t know. Don’t know how exactly that will work out — if it will work out at all. I might just query what I have in early fall 2024 and see what happens.

Of course, now I have to take a deep breath and think seriously about querying. But I think I may punt that particular issue down the road a little bit more. I want to have a complete third draft done — even if it’s an Alpha Release — before I get too worked up about querying.

And, of course, all of this is happening in the context of the fucking Petite Singularity / Fourth Turning happening at just about the moment I want to query.

Wish me luck, I suppose.

America’s Fate Starting in Late 2024, Early 2025 Rests On State Republican Parties

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Yeah, right.

The thing too many media popinjays miss about the looming threat of a civil war in the United States is that on a state level, the Republican Party has crossed the Rubicon on the issue — at least on a rhetorical basis. So, the question of the moment is, at at state level, is the Republican Party prepared to put its money where its mouth is on the issue of secession.

Just from my discussion of my mainstream conservative Traditionalists relatives — whom I love dearly — it definitely seems as though if there was a sudden lurch towards a secession crisis that they would be prepared to follow along.

Of course, any secession crisis would be a royal clusterfuck for a number of reasons. There are a lot of Blue dots in Red States. And there are states –like Virginia — which are actually two states, one Red, one Blue, fused together who fucking hate each others guts.

So, Virginia, in particular, would likely be the site where the first actual violence of a Second American Civil War might occur. I could see there be coups and counter coups as the two sides fight over if the commonwealth is going to stay in the Union or not.

What’s more, that particular situation is easy compared to areas of the Deep South where you would have the dominate white Republican Party pushing for secession and the large African American community balking. That is a very complicated situation that, if not handled properly, could possibly lead to a historic race war.

I know, that sounds like my usual “hysterical doom shit,” but that’s what we’re facing at the moment. Once you take the idea of secession seriously, you start to come up with a lot of very, very dark scenarios.

Win Or Lose, Trump May Spark A Second American Civil War Starting in Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The Republican Party is now, on a structural basis, primed and ready to start a civil war by calling up Secessionist Conventions. Now, I fear this could happen both if Trump loses or wins. It will happen if he wins if he is promptly deposed in some way — either by impeachment and conviction or by the U.S. Military — or it MAY happen if he loses.

The issue of Trump sparking a civil war by losing is really difficult to game out at this point because it is, on the face of it, very, very silly to think any such thing might happen. It just is staggering to imagine that the most powerful nation in the world might collapse into civil war because of “vibes.”

But, here we are.

And, yet, now, at the end of 2023, I still can’t tell you with any certainty that even if Trump screams bloody murder about the 2024 election being “stolen” from him that any state legislatures will listen to him.

It could be that there might be — some — politically inspired violence, but, on the whole, Trump just rants and ultimately fades into politically obscurity.

I just don’t know.

Let’s Address The Right Wing ‘Lawfare’ Talking Point

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It has become a matter of gospel within Right wing ranks that the evil liberal cabal that is out to get good (white) Christian men and women is using “lawfare” against Trump.

But, it gets worse.

Even people who don’t support Trump the person, have gotten into their noggins that this is the case. You can tell this nothing more than a fill-airtime-in-an-argument talking point when you press these people about the classified document case against Trump.

When you point out that Biden also had an investigation against him for classified documents they suddenly just wave their hand and move on to their next point. So, according to their logic, even though Trump is being investigated for something legitimate — stealing national secrets — it’s still lawfare because they think it’s neat to use the word “lawfare.”

It’s shit like this that makes me wonder if we, as a nation, will be able to survive past 2025. There is growing evidence that if Trump becomes POTUS again that we’re all in for a very, very bumpy ride. Either because about 1 million well educated wealthy liberals leave the country in a massive brain drain, or we depose Trump in some way and there’s a civil war.

Pick your poison.

Pondering The Precipice Of Querying

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now I’m worried that deep in the bowels of the Internet aether I’ve annoyed the liberal white women that make up most of the literary agent class, even before I’ve begun to query my first novel. All I can say is — I mean well. And I’m generally a fan of liberal white women. (Even if I do sometimes use them as a class as something of a comic foil in some of my drunk political rants.)

But what I’m NOT a fan of is being attacked for being a smelly CIS white male writing from a female POV. Or being forced to debate how many of my characters can dance on the head of the Bechdel Test pin. And I am who I am. Come what may.

I don’t MEAN to annoy anyone, but I’m not going to fake who I am. And, in general, I think literary agents will find me endearing, thoughtful and interesting — if they’re willing to give me a chance.

And, yet, who knows. I still have a few more months before I finish a stable third draft of the novel. Then there will be the struggle to find — and afford — a manuscript consultant to take the novel to the next level. And all of this will be happening in the context of a Petite Singularity / Fourth Turning in late 2024, early 2025.

So….good times?

Ugh. Am I Going To Have to Watch Saltburn?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My Tik-Tok FYP is ablaze with people talking about Emerald Fennell’s super weird and kinky movie Saltburn. I’m all for such things in art, but…ugh…it took me forever to see Pulp Fiction — which I now love — because of some of the scenes I heard about.

‘Saltburn’
As I’ve grown older, I’ve become even more squeamish about uncomfortable fiction. I really hate conflict to the point that the only way I can deal with it is if I’m the one creating it for an audience. Otherwise, ugh, leave me out of it. But, here I am, seriously thinking about watching Saltburn.

Let me note that it is hard to deny that it’s movies like Saltburn that really aggravate the culture wars. I can’t even broach the subject of the movie with my conservative relatives because I can’t even begin to describe to them what it’s even about.

So. I dunno. There’s room enough in this world for all God’s chillens is all I can say. Watch Saltburn or don’t, I don’t care. But I am going to take a DEEEEP BREATH — and maybe get drunk — then I’m going sit down and watch Saltburn.

I have a feeling I’m not going to get very far.

I Don’t Have A Problem With Being ‘Woke,’ Just Don’t Come After Me For Being A Male Author Writing From A Female POV In My Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I notice that someone is interested in all my ranting about the “woke cancel culture mob.” So, let me be clear — all my ranting on this subject is usually generated by booze and annoyance that I will be dinged by some hyper-woke people for being a male author writing from a female POV in my novel.

If Stieg Larsson can do that, why can’t I?

Anyway, I also know that being a drunk crank I’ve almost — certainly — done more than one thing in my personal life that will leave the hyper woke aghast. But, all I can say is the worse thing anyone ever said about me was that I’m a “delusional jerk with a good heart.”

My heroine, in my mind, looks like Corrie Yee.

So, yeah, I’m not perfect. But who is? And I generally mean well. So, I find myself wondering if all my talk about consensual kinky sex and periods in this novel will be poo-pooed by woke liberal white women because it’s ME, a smelly CIS white male, who wrote it.

Meanwhile, Emerald Fennell can go way, way off the creative beaten path and is hailed as the best thing since slice bread. It’s shit like that that causes me to rant when I’m drunk. Judge me by work, not by my gender. I GENERALLY support the media narrative about trans rights, etc, but I’m human and I have the occasional stray thought that maybe might get me in trouble with the woke Powers That Be.

I HATE this type of “woke.”

Regardless. My first novel is going well. So well, in fact, that I’m probably going to feel comfortable doing a lot more reading, watching of TV and movies and doing some writing on my “backup stories.”

We Need An Era Of Accountability

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I talked to a conservative relative recently and they said they will “never” trust the CDC again — ever. They are still seething over the perceived errors and missteps of the COVID era. I keep asking this person what exactly they want from the CDC and usually it boils down to they want liberals, in general, to take a long walk off a short pier.

And things get really wild when I note that if they get the solutions they want for the “border crisis” that the same dynamic they so hated with COVID could apply to that particular situation, too.

The issue is, of course, that there will be no “era accountability” unless, well, we break a few eggs — probably some combination of civil war / revolution. We would have to have a Second Reconstruction whereby there was some sort of “reset” where we all got a little bit — but not all — of what we wanted.

And if you throw in WW3 happening during an American civil war / revolution, then during the process of putting everything back together — if the liberal Good Guys win, that is — we might start to address global issues like global climate change and AI, too.

But that is really speculative. And things could go any number of ways I just can’t predict.