Category: Cold Civil War

I’ve Built Out The Infrastructure of A Pretty Good First Pop Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am getting ever closer to wrapping up the first draft of this novel I’ve been working on in various ways for several years now. I’m quite pleased. If nothing else, I have the infrastructure of a pop novel built out. The question is, of course, if I can imbue the second draft with enough spunk that Beta Readers will actually finish the whole thing without too much prompting.

It’s still tough for me to consume anyone else’s media. I’m so critical of my own writing that when I turn that brutal criticism on other people’s work I just can’t bear to consume it.

It’s become a real problem, especially since I need to read other people’s work in my genre if nothing else so I can get a better sense of how to serve my intended audience.

But, I definitely feel as though I’ve finally reached a point in this process that I’ve been struggling to attain for years now. I’m going to soon enter the stage of all of this where I can’t be delusional anymore. I’m going to have to be a lot more realistic about how to address issues like length and marketability.

At the moment, there’s a chance that I’m going to blow past the 100,000 word sweetspot by as much as 40,000 words. But this is just the first draft. Even though I’m going just follow the general outline I have for the first draft when the writing the second draft, there is still a lot tinkering to be done.

I’m still — at the moment — on track to start querying in fall 2023. Only time will tell, I suppose, however. A lot could change — both good and bad — between now and then.

Of The Taylor Swift Ticketmaster Debacle & The Corrosive Nature Of Negative Polarization

by Shelt Garner
@sheletgarner

Some time ago, I had a intense conversation with my Traditionalist relative about who fucked up the live concert ticketing marketplace was. My relative fucking hates any form of regulation and sometimes I think he would like to outlaw stop signs just to “own the libs.”

I TRIED to prove a point with him — all his complaints about how fucked up the ticketing process was could probably be solved with government regulation.

But he would have none of it. The siren call of negative polarization was just too much. Even though I find myself succumbing to negative polarization a lot these days, I fucking hate it. I hate it because it’s a sign that the politics of our once stable democratic republic are all but dead.

I say this because imagine this scenario — instead of embracing fascism, Traditionalists were willing to join forces with people they despise like AOC just long enough to weather the storm of ascendant MAGA autocracy.

But that is just not to be.

We’re careening towards a very, very dark future. We’re past the Event Horizon for autocracy, civil war or military junta. Now, let me be clear — I’m always, always wrong. And what will probably happen is initially, once a fucking Republican fascist becomes POTUS, it will seem like nothing will chance.

And THEN, things will gradually change in ways large and small and about 1 million wealthy liberals will leave the country, never to be seen again. That, at least, seems to be our immutable fate at the moment. But something unexpected might step in to at least punt the problem down the road at least one more presidential election cycle.

But the point is — not even a bunch of Swifties being angry can overcome the corrosive nature of negative polarization. There is an extensive permission structure for Traditionalists to vote fascist rather than join forces with the center-Left and, as such, we’re fucked.

The Fall of The House Of Trump?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Is it possible that as it becomes clear that Ron DeSantis is the only way that Republicans can win the White House 2024…that NOW Trump will face accountability? Will, magically, the wheels of justice begin to turn faster and suddenly throughout 2023 Trump might actually be indicted a few times?

Maybe.

But there are a few problems with this.

One is obvious — any criminal accountability for Trump will turn him into a martyr and the base of the Republican Party will cling to him even fucking tighter. The other is not as obvious, but just as certain — barring something really unexpected, rather than forcing Trump into political retirement, DeSantis winning the nomination would just cause Trump to jump to the Patriot Party.

And, remember, one of the reasons why I think we might have a civil war starting in 2024 – 2025 is Republicans, probably using the newly-validated “Independent Legislature” concept will brazenly steal the the 2024 election. To the point that the country buckles into Turner Diaries-like chaos. (I’ve never read that book, but it’s a shorthand for my worst nightmares about the future of America even though it’s politics are at the far end of the exact opposite of the political spectrum from mine.)

Anyway — the point is, Trump isn’t going anywhere.

He is either going to be the nominee in 2024, or he’ll destroy the Republican Party in the process. And, really, my only question about Trump is — was his historical purpose to be a transitional figure in America’s descent into autocracy, or is he meant to cause a civil war?

Regardless, we’ve officially entered a very, very bumpy time in American history. We either slide into autocracy, have a civil war or maybe have a military junta of some sort. But the America that we have known since the end of the First American Civil War is running on fumes into a dark, dark future. Anything can and will happen and the sooner you start to game out what you’re going to do when the so-called “Fourth Turning” happens, the better.

Dear FBI: I Hate Violence

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

“You’re a delusional jerk with a good heart.”
— (late) Annie Shapiro about me.

I really hate violence. Hell, I struggle with dealing with just simple conflict, much less violence. But I know that at times I kind of get worked up — especially about fat fuck Mike Pompeo — and I also know that apparently everyone is on edge and on a hair trigger about people even seeming to be advocating any sort of harm.

JESUS CHRIST

Just the idea that anyone would think I was some sort of deranged, armed lunatic really, really bothers me. I have very strong opinions, yes, and can get drunk and worked out about this or that issue but I’m a man of peace, a man of ideas.

I can come across as something of a drunk kook, but that’s it. I’m very laid back and, most importantly, I’m not quiet and I don’t keep to myself. I’m 100% extroverted and, as such, whatever happens to be on my mind, you’re probably going to learn about it one way or another.

So, FBI, you can safely ignore me, no matter how much I may rant about how I think Mike Pompeo is a fat fuck and would-be autocrat. I swear. I’m totally, totally harmless!

The Great ‘Gay Scare’ of 2022

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I only talk about this in the context of how America is becoming two nations, one Red, one Blue. Otherwise, I’m pretty indifferent. People should be able to live their lives as they wish (within reason) — just be left alone, as my Traditionalist relatives might say — and it’s both dumb and alarming that any of this is happening in the first place.

But let’s talk about what’s going on in the context of how it seems the sides are beginning to harden between Red and Blue. I have to admit that there is a certain orthodoxy that exists on the Left about the LGBTQ+ community and if you don’t adhere to it, there’s hell to pay: witness Dave Chappelle.

The reason why Reds sense blood in the water politically and culturally about this issue is it’s easy to paint Blues as “groomers” given that part of the orthodoxy around LGBTQ+ rights can come across as a bit complex and ridged, to to mention a little extreme. In fact, one of my complaints about the “woke” Left is they’re so busy debating how many genders can dance on the head of a pin that they are totally oblivious to the very real rise of fascism in the United States.

So instead of girding our political loins for a massive clusterfuck in late 2024, early 2025, Blues are pointing fingers — trying to “cancel” — anyone who doesn’t adhere to a very strict, sometimes arcane and mysterious, orthodoxy about LGBTQ+ rights.

Anyway, the whole thing is a disaster for both sides for various reasons. But the chief reason is — we’re past the Event Horizon for autocracy, civil war, or military junta in late 2024, early 2025. Buckle up, no matter what gender you are or what pronoun you use.

‘Fourth Turning’ Flashpoint: New York City

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t believe in the concept of the “Fourth Turning” — it’s just astrology for dudes. But is an effective shorthand for the potential clusterfuck we face in late 2024, early 2025.

One place to keep an eye around that timeframe is New York City. I say this because not only is a lot of Right wing media based out of NYC, but the flagship Trump Tower is there, too. So if the country begins to collapse because of the pressures of the 2024 presidential cycle, then I could see the possibility of there being a popular revolt in NYC directed at Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Post and Trump Tower.

This sounds very, very fantastical at the moment, but, as they say, one goes bankrupt gradually, then all at once, so…it’s at least possible? As I keep saying, I still don’t think there’s going to be a National Divorce or Second American Civil War. There may be rolling political violence like Bárbara F. Walter keeps writing about, but not the full-scale civil war that I’m nervous about.

Blues just don’t have it in them.

And, yet, if it becomes clear that either the 2024 election is going to be brazenly stolen or the new, incoming MAGA POTUS is going to be really, really radical in their policies…it’s possible, just possible that there might be a massive groundswell for a National Divorce in Blue states — with California and New York City being the two places where the bolts begin to pop off of the country in a rather conspicuous manner.

I don’t know, we don’t quite know the final elements of what will happen in 2024 — especially like what SCOTUS will rule on the “Independant Legislature” concept — so….lulz? I’m always, always wrong and any “Fourth Turning” (giggle) is about 18 months from now. But I would suggest you think seriously about getting the fuck out of the United States if you have the means.

‘Fourth Turning’ Flashpoint: California

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I believe that the so-called “Fourth Turning” is astrology for dudes, but it’s a useful shorthand for what I believe may happen in late 2024 – early 2025 between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025.

Now, I can’t predict the future. So, lulz, I’m probably wrong. The following is a mixture of entertainment and wild speculation. I’m just working on the assumption that we won’t dodge the bullet that we dodged in 2020 – 2021.

Anyway, with out of the way, a key place to keep an eye on is California. There are two ways that we might find ourselves talking about a Secessionist Crisis when it comes to California. One is, the agenda for the incoming MAGA president is so radical that it forces the issue, while the other is the Republicans steal the 2024 election in such a brazen manner that we all start thinking about Blues leaving the Union.

And, what’s more, there’s the issue of what the agenda of California leaving the Union might be. Would it be just to establish its own nation-state or would it be to join forces with other Blue states to form a new Blue Union? That is really up the air this far out. It could go either way.

Honestly, I just don’t see this happening. Rather than put up a fight, millions of wealthy liberals will actually do what they’ve been grumbling about doing for years now — vote with their feet. Blue states bend a knee to fascism and we wake up 20 years from now with the same POTUS who is, for some reason, babbling about “deNazifying” Canada of all places.

But this particular nightmare scenario is at least something to think about going forward over the course of the next two or so years. Remember, though, I’m always, always, wrong. So, lulz.

The Ascendant MTG

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to make of Marjorie Taylor Greene because on one hand, she’s just another deranged MAGA moron and on the other she seems to want to be a real player in Washington. The only reason why this is both alarming and unnerving is she not only has incoming Speaker Kevin McCarthy over a barrel, making all these demands of him, but she’s also apparently in the running to be Trump’s 2024 veep.

MTG

Oh boy.

So, there there is a good chance that we may trade ding-dong Trump for ding-dong MTG at some point after 2025. Should she — gulp — become president either she would be a far more effective version of Trump or she would name someone like fat fuck Mike Pompeo to be her veep and he would would behind the throne. I call this the “Velvet Fist” scenario.

I just don’t know. While I do think it is very, very possible that MTG could become POTUS by being Trump’s veep, her actual ability to turn America into some sort of MAGA hellscape is debatable. But anything is possible, I guess.

I will note, however, that if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee, the likelihood that America will have a Second American Civil War increases significantly. Let that marinate in your mind whenever thinking of MTG as POTUS one day.

‘Not Great, Bob:’ — Mike Pompeo, Tyrant In Waiting

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s not great how close someone like Mike Pompeo is to being president of the United States. Of all the would-be autocrats within the Republican Party at the moment — and there are at least a dozen –Pompeo is special (at least to me) because he’s so brazen about what a fucking tyrant he would be, given the opportunity. Case in point:

This is pretty basic autocratic stuff and if Pompeo became president he knows the levers of power well enough to make his tyrannical, illiberal vision of America a very painful reality. When he’s not union-busting, he’ll be leaning on major media companies by threatening their broadcast licenses or “disappearing” people like me using a weaponized ICE.

And our liberal order in America is so weak at the moment, it will probably happen in broad daylight and nothing will happen. There might be some outrage here or there but, in general, so many wealthy liberals will be on the way out of the country that no real resistance will happen in the real world where it would be needed.

But let me be clear — Mike Pompeo is just a unique strain of a whole autocratic pot dispensary of Republican would-be autocrats. By definition — the next Republican president will be a fascist autocrat and America’s slide into illiberal democracy is now an immutable force of political future history. We may punt it down the road some or change the context some, but this is it — we’re now in the final days of American democracy one way or another.

It just happens that something about former fat fuck Pompeo bothers me because he seems to really hate the press for some reason. Asshole.

But Pompeo would have to win election first, of course, and the way things are going, it definitely looks like the only way that will ever happen is if Trump picked him as his veep in 2024. Which is possible, but not probable.

Pompeo is sort of in a race against time — unless it’s old and fat Trump who becomes our autocrat in 2025, then it will be young and angry DeSantis who will politically cockblock his chances of being our first autocrat. So, I suppose we’ll just have to wait and see if Trump’s veep is someone like Pompeo or if it’s someone like MTG. Only time will tell.

The Rise Of The Silicon Valley Fascist Tech Bro

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I try to listen to the “All In” podcast if for no other reason than to force myself to listen to people I disagree with — in an more extreme way, this is why I listen to Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast. I must note that on a political basis, at least, I pretty much agree with Jason Calacanis who isn’t at all as fascist as some of the other people on the All In podcast.

Anyway, what is so alarming is how fascist David Sacks is. He’s a very smart, very educated man, but fuck if that guy isn’t a fascist. He gives off German Industrialist vibes. He also reminds me of a relative of mine who essentially espouses political views that are identical to Sacks.

I’m reading up on the rise of Hitler and it’s all very disheartening how history is repeating itself in the United States at the moment. All things being equal on a macro level, it seems an immutable law of history at this point that the United States is going to slip into autocracy the moment we have another Republican president.

But there are a lot — a lot — of variables that I simply can’t game out. There is the issue of how fucking old Donald Trump and Joe Biden are. There is the issue of Trump being a low energy loser now who might — or might not — be replaced by a younger, more agile fascist like Ron DeSantis.

And, yet, it could go either way.

Maybe Trump will be the nominee and, as such, could, unto himself, spark a civil war by pushing Blue states out of the Union?

I just don’t know. I just know that all signs point to the next two years being far, far more unstable in the United States than you might otherwise think. But I’m always wrong, so it’s possible we’ll somehow manage to punt some pretty existential problems down the road AGAIN.

Only time will tell. But the rise of the fascist Tech Bro isn’t exactly helping the situation. It would be a lot more helpful if people as educated and powerful as Tech Bros still believed in democracy.