Category: Cold Civil War

Pondering A Third Trump Impeachment

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more I think about it, the more I realize that by definition a Trump second term would be extremely unstable. I say this because first of all, all the tyrannical things Trump wants to do won’t happen in a political vacuum in either political direction — Left or Right.

First of all, there will be a lot of vocal anti-anti-Trump people who will rationalize any tyrannical thing Trump does in 2025 by saying, “the people have spoken.” Meanwhile, if Trump really abuses power in a tyrannical way, anti-Trump forces will have two possible reactions at their disposal — impeachment or somehow deposing Trump using the power of the U.S. Military. (NOT ADVOCATING ANYTHING.)

Impeachment would hinge on if Democrats won the House or not in 2024. And people would have to get REALLY WORKED UP even then. So, in a sense, the difference between politically removing Trump via impeachment and overthrowing him via a military coup would not really be all that different. In both instances, you would probably have to organize a General Strike to get the point across AND there is a good chance that Red States would begin to leave the Union in protest.

So, I dunno what to tell you. Hopefully, things won’t get so bad. Hopefully, something will happen and Trump will just scurry away into political oblivion.

The Warped Nature of American Politics Is Enough to Make You Throw Up Your Hands In Dismay

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We live in strange times. My far more conservative relative — whom I love dearly — really lives in a totally different universe than I do. They have a pretty well thought-out series of talking points that he has been fed through all the Right-wing podcasts they listen to.

They think all the investigations into Trump are nothing more than “lawfare.” They think the economy is horrible. They think the armies of Russia and China are soooo much more powerful than ours because they’re not “woke.” I tried my best to point out how wrong all of that was on a strictly factual basis, but I don’t know how successful I was.

The point remains — the proof will be in the pudding should Trump get re-elected and he start to do things that are so totally bonkers that even Traditionalists who are “MAGA curious” will sit up and take notice. If Trump goes full tyrant to the point that Traditionalists — who otherwise love, love, love his policies — throw up their hands in disgust…everyone, not just Trump, will have a real problem on their hands.

That is crux of the issue going forward — is there *any* red line that Traditionalists will have should the time come? Is there *any* tyrannical thing that Trump might do that will cause them to say, “enough is enough” and support whatever last-ditch direct action might be thought up to get rid of Trump?

The entirety of the American democratic experience hinges on what Traditionalists decide at that point.

The ‘Vibsession’ Is Real In The Minds Of MAGA

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Another holiday season, another polite, but heated, debate with my far more conservative relative. It is clear to me that the center-Right and the center-Left in the US live in totally different realities now.

While I’m not suggesting that the U.S. economy is perfect, in general, it’s doing quite well in relative terms. But to hear my conservative relative talk, you’d think we were in the middle of a Second Great Depression. I finally had to make it clear that I actually had facts to back me up, if need be, just like they had all these fact about how horrible COVID lockdowns were.

This is a prime example of how fucked we are going into the 2024 election. It could be that we’re so divided that even though the economy is doing generally well enough people on the center-Right will be wrapped up in the “vibesession” that Trump will come roaring back.

And I don’t think we really appreciate how fucking bad a second Trump administration will be. It will far, far worse than any of us could possibly imagine. The key issue is, of course, what the reaction of the average person will be when Trump starts snatching people off the streets.

Who knows.

The Russians (Think They Are) Coming (In Late 2024, Early 2025)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

At least one notable Russian thinks that the U.S. will be so “leaderless” in late 2024, early 2025 that they can strike Europe with impunity. While if you were to read this blog on a regular basis, you might think that was *possible*, even I have my doubts.

The two main scenarios facing us are Trump wins and there’s a major re-alignment of the global order and Trump loses and we somehow have a civil war. There is a third, less likely scenario, whereby Trump loses and…nothing happens.

I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen. But I am worried that Something Big will happen in late 2024, early 2025. Does that mean Russia will be able to invade Europe at will? I dunno about THAT. But I do think it’s at least *possible* that there will be so much mass chaos taking place in late 2024, early 2025 for various Trump-related reasons that, yeah, maybe.

But the U.S. Military so powerful that even if Russia attacked, say, Poland, we could still put a hurting on Russia, even if the rest of the military was being force into an untenable situation by ding-dong Trump.

Yet, let me be clear — I can’t predict the future. It’s possible that the coming year will be rather meh or something unexpected will happen that will punt our problems down the road another four years.

‘Minority Report’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Since I can’t predict the future, let’s go through some of the ways that we could somehow punt our structural political problems down the road in 2024, like we did in 2020.

The Primaries
Nikki Haley is gaining fast on Trump. And, as such, it is still within the realm of possibility that Trump will be seen as a paper tiger and Haley will be the nominee. But, of course, there is an equal chance that if something so unexpected happens, that Trump runs as an independent and calls for a civil war when he doesn’t win the general.

The General
The only reason why Trump remains a viable candidate is how fucked up our political system is. As such, no matter what, once he gets the nomination, he will be 60,000 votes in 5 swing states away from being POTUS again. But Trump is really, really unpopular with a huge segment of the population, so…I dunno. And just because Trump might demand a National Divorce if he loses, doesn’t mean anyone will listen to him.

Something Unexpected
It’s totally possible that just like in 2020, something really, really unexpected might happen in 2024 that throws everything for a loop.

We Live In Strange Times

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m drunk, so I’m going to rant about something VERY against the media narrative. I’m annoyed that we’ve reached a point where gratuitous gay sex is great, but we can’t have just regular old heteronormative T&A without it being a Big Deal.

I find this very fucked up.

I’m not opposed to depictions of gay sex in pop culture — my novel sure does have enough of it — it’s just why can’t we have the heteronormative sexxy time of the 1980s in movies and TV in modern times?

It’s a very strange situation.

I have my doubts that this quirk of modern culture will change anytime soon. I think we probably have a solid 20 years before people think, “Hey, maybe it’s not so radical to have some traditional T&A in mainstream entertainment.”

Abortion Is An Economic Issue

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t predict the future. No one can. But it definitely SEEMS as though the moment MAGA can ban abortion on a nation-wide basis, it will. The reason why I bring this up is abortion, likely slavery, is an economic issue.

While abortion obviously isn’t as dramatic an economic issue as slavery, the fact that Red states want the entire US to be pro-life isn’t exactly a great situation when it comes to the health of the Union.

The whole thing is very corrosive.

And it could be, when Trump starts to thrash around as a tyrant and band abortion nation-wide, it would be just that type of thing that could push women over the edge to the point that we have some sort of Women’s Strike against Trump.

But, what do I know. Lulz. No one listens to me.

Something About Emma Stone Is So Hot

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It has come to my attention that there is a lot of uhhhh, sexxy time in Emma Stone’s latest Oscar bait Poor Things. Something about that really gets my juices flowing for some intangible reason.

I think some of it has to do with how she’s steered clear of T&A in her career to date. And I think it’s a testament to two things. One is having a great personality is hot — and helps a great deal when it comes to being an actress. That’s why Emrata, who is demonstrably better looking than Stone, neither has the acting chops nor the twinkle that Stone has.

Something about Stone doing showing some skin in Poor Things seems like forbidden fruit, which only adds to the allure. It could be that I’m just turning into a dirty old man, but, lulz.

Another thing — that Stone would show some skin later in her career is a reminder that the dynamic for actresses doing such stuff changes the older they get. When they’re just starting out, it can come across as exploitive. But later in their career, they often serve as producers in the movies they are in, so they have some skin — no pun intended — in the game.

But, I dunno. I think a lot of this idle musing on my part is just being older. When you’re older, the context of such things changes. It is very curious to me how skittish we’ve become when it comes to heteronormative monoculture and the use of T&A in mainstream movies.

We’re so busy having gratuitous gay sex scenes, that we seem to miss that straight sex can be pretty hot, too. Whatever. No one listens to me.

I Miss The Old Playboy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This isn’t Playboy, but this is the vibe I miss.

I am WELL AWARE of the dark side of Playboy Magazine. And, yet, I’ve reached an age where I think back to what we once had with Playboy and think we’ve lost something. The social function served by Playboy of yore is now filled by OnlyFans and Treats! Magazine.

OnlyFans isn’t my thing. And I would dabble in owning a few issues of Treats! Magazine, but for the fact that inevitably some family member would discover my stash of the high end nude magazine and think I was some sort of perv. That, even though Treats! Magazine is REALLY GOOD. They have great photography (if nothing else.)

That’s the thing about the old print Playboy. It actually *did* have great articles and it did push a lifestyle that men of all ages could aspire to. But, like I said, the dark side of all of that was so dark that, meh, maybe good riddance.

Thinking about Playboy does make me think about how fucked up entertainment is these days. We’ve all grown so woke that we’re so busy having gratuitous gay sex in movies and TV that we’ve loss sight of the power of regular old heteronormative monoculture T&A.

It’s gotten so bad that it’s some sort of scandal when Taylor Swift makes it clear in her music and performances that she fucks. I remember a point in the late 1980s, early 1990s when it seemed as though Madonna was determined to shove all of her deepest, darkest sexual desires down our throats in as public a manner as possible.

I suppose it’s possible that MAGA will get its way and regulate online porn out of existence to the point that porn pops out against in print magazines. And, yet, I also think that I’m just old and I’m struggling to live in this new age of ours.

It definitely seems as though it could be another generation before the pendulum begins to swing back towards the glory that is regular old heteronormative monoculture sex. We’ve got a good 20 years more of either people being too woke for straight sex in entertainment or too prudish for it on the Right.

I hate being old. And, I have to admit, I’m in something of a bad mood at the moment. I have no problem with freaky gay sex in mainstream entertainment, I just wish things like a print Playboy existed so you could see your favorite female stars show a little skin now and again without it being a big deal.

An Unusually Bad Hot Take From New York Magazine Against Holding Trump Accountable Using Second 3 of The 14th Amendment

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

New York Magazine is one of those establishment liberal publications that gives you some insight into what the “conventional wisdom” of the Costal Elites is. And I’m very annoyed by their belief that SCOTUS shouldn’t, well, read Section 3 of the 14th Amendment for what it say — Trump is disqualified from running again.

Any normal human being reading the 14th Amendment would say Trump is banned from office. And, yet, apparently, New York Magazine thinks that because of the risk of fascist violence on the part of MAGA, SCOTUS should punt the problem or do whatever necessary to allow Trump to run.

One argument that New York Magazine makes that I agree with is No One Is Going To Save Us. I totally agree with them on that. Trump is a symptom, not a cause and, as such, we have to prepare for the worst — either autocracy or revolution / civil war.

But at the same time, I believe we should follow the law, and the actual words of the 14th Amendment bans Trump from office. We can’t be intimidated by the threat of MAGA fascist violence into bending to their will. That sort of appeasement didn’t work with Hitler in the 1930s and it won’t work now.

Anyway…good luck?