Category: The Resistance

Speaker Trump? Allegedly, At The Moment, Kevin McCarthy Lacks The Votes to be Speaker of The House

by Shelt Garner
@sheltganer

But for what a fucking lazy idiot Trump is, I would believe that Trump is going to swoop in and become Speaker of the House when Kevin McCarthy fails to get enough votes to get the gig.

Even I, someone who loves to speculate widely, don’t think Trump is going to be Speaker — for a number of reasons. The chief reason is while for normal people with normal abstract cognitive abilities, Trump being Speaker makes a huge amount of sense…this is Trump we’re dealing with.

Trump is so fucking lazy and stupid that I just don’t think he could wrap his little peabrain around the idea of all the damage he could do as Speaker. He has his mind and heart set on being POTUS again and that’s that. I think maybe if Ivanka were to explain how delightful the revenge of taking the Speaker’s gavel away from Nancy Pelosi would be like…maybe he might think about it?

What I think is going to happen is there will be a little bit of a kerfuffle when the vote for Speaker happens, then McCarthy gets it…and then we spend two years with the Senate standing as jury when all these people from the Biden Administration are impeached — some of them more than once!

President Biden
It’s pretty clear to me that a Republican House will be so full of spite and rage and bloodlust for revenge that it’s very possible they may accidently on purpose impeach Biden for no apparent reason in the early days of 2023. It will be so transparent as to what is going on that House Republicans are going to do severe political damage to themselves. But it won’t matter — that political damage would only matter if we were a functioning democracy. But we’re no longer a functioning democracy, we’re in between autocracy and democracy — in other words, an “anocracy.”

There are at least two reasons why Biden will be impeached. One is, of course, his wastrel son Hunter Biden. The other is the “border crisis.” The big issue is will these be two seperate impeachments so Democrats will not longer have Trump being impeached twice as a talking point, or if these two issues will be fused together into one event.

At the moment, I honestly don’t know. There’s always a chance that MAGA Republicans will impeach Biden THREE times, for two reasons. They both scream at the top of their lungs that Biden is the only president to be impeached three times and at the same time they can, expo facto say it’s no big deal that Trump was impeached twice.

Veep Harris
I have no idea why House Republicans will impeach Harris, but they’ll think of something. Just the idea that they could somehow impeach and convict Biden and Harris in quick succession is enough to give them all a boner and they have no self control so they’re going to do it at some point between 2023 and 2025.

DHS Secretary Mayorkas
As I understand it, there’s already a move afoot by House Republicans to hit the ground running impeaching Mayorkas for his handling of the “border crisis.” So, there’s every reason to believe that he’s going to be impeached at some point between 2023 and 2025.

HHS Secretary Becerra 
This is a bit more speculative, but I could see that once the impeachment counter-revolution gets going that House Republicans will set their sights on Becerra for something connected to “gender affirming” care of minors. That seems like just the type of culture war edge issue that MAGA House Republicans would want to wallow in for a few months to prove a point. I could also see a potential impeachment article surrounding the Biden Administration’s handling of COVID — even though it was Trump who fucked that particular situation up. Who cares about facts when you have lies?

Education Secretary Cardona
This is also rather speculative, but once the monster of impeachment is unleashed, House Republicans may go after Cordona on the nebulous charge of encouraging “critical race theory” in schools — even if this is total bullshit. They just want to be able to hold hearings where they rant about CRT for hours on end. It will juice the base while “owning” the libs.

FBI Director Wray
If this happens, it will be a prime example of how wrapped up in their own bullshit MAGA House Republicans will be once they have power. Wray is ON THEIR SIDE and they will still come after him because something something Deep State.

Attorney General Garland
This is obvious — MAGA Republicans are so blinded by their anger over the Mar-a-Lago raid that they want to impeach Garland for approving it, despite it being totally justified given what Trump did.

There could be a few Federal judges that spark MAGA ire that will be impeached as well.

The Life (And Death) Of The Heteronormative Monoculture

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I grow older,I find myself missing things like Playboy and the Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show. I also miss the good old days when Hollywood told simple, heteronormative stories that were Just Movies with no “woke” agenda that was beaten into the audience’s skull.

To even talk about the existence of heteronormative monoculture in a wistful, positive way causes some cultural warriors on the Left to spit blood out of their eyes. At the risk of sounding “Red Pilled” I definitely feel as though cultural Leftists are doing themselves no favors by making people feel bad about wishing heteronormative monoculture still existed.

I am well aware of the very dark backstories of both Playboy and Victoria’s Secret, but I think there was an air of tradition about them back when they existed. They were comfort food for everyday people for decades. There was no sense that they had to feel bad for being straight and traditional.

But here we are — even things as basic as liking hot chicks in various forms of undress is a partisan issue. Yet, I think we’ve lost something with the demise of Playboy and Victoria’s Secret. I suppose, of course, that with the rise of internet porn, Playboy’s demise was inevitable.

Combine this with the collapse of the print publishing business and the shocking revelations about Hugh Hefner and, well, lulz. And, in its own way, Victoria’s Secret was just as bad. There was a lot of dirty dealing going on in the shadows when it comes to Victoria’s Secret.

But such things are inevitable when you’re dealing with the most beautiful women in the world. It’s just at some point, we as a culture decided the trade off wasn’t worth it. It’s just sad — at least to me — that gorgeous women in small towns don’t have the Playboy route to showbiz career as a viable choice anymore. And walking the Victoria’s Secret runway was a real dream for a lot of drop dead gorgeous women.

Now, it seems the “woke cancel culture mob” wants everyone to be gay, fat and ugly and they punish people who have the temerity to be anything other than that. (That is what my Traditionalist relatives seem to believe, at least.)

I just wish there was some middle ground. I think a lot of what I’m feeling is just being old. Things aren’t what they used to be and I have to accept that. Barring a Great Reset that causes us all to go back to the way things used to be….this is it. No more Playboy with cultural relevance and no more Victoria’s Secret Fashion show.

My Hot Take On Jonathan Chait’s Belief That Trump Won’t Burn Everything To The Ground in 2024

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I find the idea that Trump, who nearly destroyed American democracy specifically because of his own vanity, will ultimately fold like a house of cards if he loses the 2024 Republican nomination to Ron DeSantis.

I read his piece on this idea and what he suggests is, in fact, compelling. Trump does have a history of unexpecting folding when he hasn’t gotten what he wanted.

Here’s what Jonathan Chait has to say on the subject:

More important, it would be uncharacteristic for Trump to allow his grudges to get in the way of his clear self-interest. Trump does lash out wildly at anybody who disrespects him, but he also turns on a dime and makes friends with his former enemies. You can see this pattern in the way he lashed out at the likes of Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio before reconciling on the basis of mutual interest.

What interests would Trump have in common with DeSantis? For one thing, DeSantis could offer Trump legal protection — either pardons or immunity from additional prosecution. Second, DeSantis already commands a massive fundraising network, and as the Republican nominee, he would hold enormous power over various revenue streams around the party, ranging from its scam PACs to its media outlets. DeSantis would be in a position to make sure Trump is very well compensated in return for an endorsement.

I suppose all of what Chait posits is credible, and, yet, Trump continues to slide into some form of deranged dementia. I’m not 100% sure that Trump is still a “rational actor.” As such, it seems possible that Trump could be so filled with narcissistic rage over losing the nomination to DeSantis that he runs under the Patriot Party rubric and splits the conservative vote to the point that a Democrat is able to win again in 2024.

But I’m not prepared to assume that it is even possible for Trump to lose the nomination. The base still loves ding-dong Trump because he continues to be an avatar for white Christian rage about how Blue states use soft power to make them feel bad for…being white Christians.

I suppose what I’m trying to say is — I wouldn’t be so sure to assume anything about malignant ding-dong Trump’s willingness to allow DeSantis to be the Republican nominee, even if he would assure he would get legal protection. I would suggest that January 6th may have been a lot more significant in Trump’s move towards being a very lazy autocrat than we might think.

In other words, if Trump is willing to destroy American democracy out of sheer vanity, there’s no reason to believe he wouldn’t at least seriously entertain the idea of destroying the Republican Party’s for the same reason. Trump is a fighter and I’m no so sure he has the complex abstract comprehension necessary to bow a knee to DeSantis in the short term for the long-term payback of not going to jail.

Trump’s political views are more of a grunt. The only thing that negates how dangerous he is, is a combination of laziness and incompetence. So, what comes across as Trump being all rhetoric is really that Trump just isn’t a “great man” like Hitler, but just an idiot ding-dong avtar for white Christian rage.

So, I dunno. I just won’t make any hard and fast predictions at the moment about Trump, the Republican Party and Ron DeSantis. Here’s why — logically, Trump would have indicted Hunter Biden in spring – summer 2020. Logically, Trump would have stolen the 2020 election well before January 6th. But….he didn’t do it. He waited until the very, very, very,very last moment in the process to try to steal the 2020 election.

As such, I have a wait and see approach. It could go either way. We won’t know until it happens.

I’ve Built Out The Infrastructure of A Pretty Good First Pop Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am getting ever closer to wrapping up the first draft of this novel I’ve been working on in various ways for several years now. I’m quite pleased. If nothing else, I have the infrastructure of a pop novel built out. The question is, of course, if I can imbue the second draft with enough spunk that Beta Readers will actually finish the whole thing without too much prompting.

It’s still tough for me to consume anyone else’s media. I’m so critical of my own writing that when I turn that brutal criticism on other people’s work I just can’t bear to consume it.

It’s become a real problem, especially since I need to read other people’s work in my genre if nothing else so I can get a better sense of how to serve my intended audience.

But, I definitely feel as though I’ve finally reached a point in this process that I’ve been struggling to attain for years now. I’m going to soon enter the stage of all of this where I can’t be delusional anymore. I’m going to have to be a lot more realistic about how to address issues like length and marketability.

At the moment, there’s a chance that I’m going to blow past the 100,000 word sweetspot by as much as 40,000 words. But this is just the first draft. Even though I’m going just follow the general outline I have for the first draft when the writing the second draft, there is still a lot tinkering to be done.

I’m still — at the moment — on track to start querying in fall 2023. Only time will tell, I suppose, however. A lot could change — both good and bad — between now and then.

Of The Taylor Swift Ticketmaster Debacle & The Corrosive Nature Of Negative Polarization

by Shelt Garner
@sheletgarner

Some time ago, I had a intense conversation with my Traditionalist relative about who fucked up the live concert ticketing marketplace was. My relative fucking hates any form of regulation and sometimes I think he would like to outlaw stop signs just to “own the libs.”

I TRIED to prove a point with him — all his complaints about how fucked up the ticketing process was could probably be solved with government regulation.

But he would have none of it. The siren call of negative polarization was just too much. Even though I find myself succumbing to negative polarization a lot these days, I fucking hate it. I hate it because it’s a sign that the politics of our once stable democratic republic are all but dead.

I say this because imagine this scenario — instead of embracing fascism, Traditionalists were willing to join forces with people they despise like AOC just long enough to weather the storm of ascendant MAGA autocracy.

But that is just not to be.

We’re careening towards a very, very dark future. We’re past the Event Horizon for autocracy, civil war or military junta. Now, let me be clear — I’m always, always wrong. And what will probably happen is initially, once a fucking Republican fascist becomes POTUS, it will seem like nothing will chance.

And THEN, things will gradually change in ways large and small and about 1 million wealthy liberals will leave the country, never to be seen again. That, at least, seems to be our immutable fate at the moment. But something unexpected might step in to at least punt the problem down the road at least one more presidential election cycle.

But the point is — not even a bunch of Swifties being angry can overcome the corrosive nature of negative polarization. There is an extensive permission structure for Traditionalists to vote fascist rather than join forces with the center-Left and, as such, we’re fucked.

The Fall of The House Of Trump?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Is it possible that as it becomes clear that Ron DeSantis is the only way that Republicans can win the White House 2024…that NOW Trump will face accountability? Will, magically, the wheels of justice begin to turn faster and suddenly throughout 2023 Trump might actually be indicted a few times?

Maybe.

But there are a few problems with this.

One is obvious — any criminal accountability for Trump will turn him into a martyr and the base of the Republican Party will cling to him even fucking tighter. The other is not as obvious, but just as certain — barring something really unexpected, rather than forcing Trump into political retirement, DeSantis winning the nomination would just cause Trump to jump to the Patriot Party.

And, remember, one of the reasons why I think we might have a civil war starting in 2024 – 2025 is Republicans, probably using the newly-validated “Independent Legislature” concept will brazenly steal the the 2024 election. To the point that the country buckles into Turner Diaries-like chaos. (I’ve never read that book, but it’s a shorthand for my worst nightmares about the future of America even though it’s politics are at the far end of the exact opposite of the political spectrum from mine.)

Anyway — the point is, Trump isn’t going anywhere.

He is either going to be the nominee in 2024, or he’ll destroy the Republican Party in the process. And, really, my only question about Trump is — was his historical purpose to be a transitional figure in America’s descent into autocracy, or is he meant to cause a civil war?

Regardless, we’ve officially entered a very, very bumpy time in American history. We either slide into autocracy, have a civil war or maybe have a military junta of some sort. But the America that we have known since the end of the First American Civil War is running on fumes into a dark, dark future. Anything can and will happen and the sooner you start to game out what you’re going to do when the so-called “Fourth Turning” happens, the better.

Dear FBI: I Hate Violence

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

“You’re a delusional jerk with a good heart.”
— (late) Annie Shapiro about me.

I really hate violence. Hell, I struggle with dealing with just simple conflict, much less violence. But I know that at times I kind of get worked up — especially about fat fuck Mike Pompeo — and I also know that apparently everyone is on edge and on a hair trigger about people even seeming to be advocating any sort of harm.

JESUS CHRIST

Just the idea that anyone would think I was some sort of deranged, armed lunatic really, really bothers me. I have very strong opinions, yes, and can get drunk and worked out about this or that issue but I’m a man of peace, a man of ideas.

I can come across as something of a drunk kook, but that’s it. I’m very laid back and, most importantly, I’m not quiet and I don’t keep to myself. I’m 100% extroverted and, as such, whatever happens to be on my mind, you’re probably going to learn about it one way or another.

So, FBI, you can safely ignore me, no matter how much I may rant about how I think Mike Pompeo is a fat fuck and would-be autocrat. I swear. I’m totally, totally harmless!

The Great ‘Gay Scare’ of 2022

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I only talk about this in the context of how America is becoming two nations, one Red, one Blue. Otherwise, I’m pretty indifferent. People should be able to live their lives as they wish (within reason) — just be left alone, as my Traditionalist relatives might say — and it’s both dumb and alarming that any of this is happening in the first place.

But let’s talk about what’s going on in the context of how it seems the sides are beginning to harden between Red and Blue. I have to admit that there is a certain orthodoxy that exists on the Left about the LGBTQ+ community and if you don’t adhere to it, there’s hell to pay: witness Dave Chappelle.

The reason why Reds sense blood in the water politically and culturally about this issue is it’s easy to paint Blues as “groomers” given that part of the orthodoxy around LGBTQ+ rights can come across as a bit complex and ridged, to to mention a little extreme. In fact, one of my complaints about the “woke” Left is they’re so busy debating how many genders can dance on the head of a pin that they are totally oblivious to the very real rise of fascism in the United States.

So instead of girding our political loins for a massive clusterfuck in late 2024, early 2025, Blues are pointing fingers — trying to “cancel” — anyone who doesn’t adhere to a very strict, sometimes arcane and mysterious, orthodoxy about LGBTQ+ rights.

Anyway, the whole thing is a disaster for both sides for various reasons. But the chief reason is — we’re past the Event Horizon for autocracy, civil war, or military junta in late 2024, early 2025. Buckle up, no matter what gender you are or what pronoun you use.

‘Fourth Turning’ Flashpoint: New York City

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t believe in the concept of the “Fourth Turning” — it’s just astrology for dudes. But is an effective shorthand for the potential clusterfuck we face in late 2024, early 2025.

One place to keep an eye around that timeframe is New York City. I say this because not only is a lot of Right wing media based out of NYC, but the flagship Trump Tower is there, too. So if the country begins to collapse because of the pressures of the 2024 presidential cycle, then I could see the possibility of there being a popular revolt in NYC directed at Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Post and Trump Tower.

This sounds very, very fantastical at the moment, but, as they say, one goes bankrupt gradually, then all at once, so…it’s at least possible? As I keep saying, I still don’t think there’s going to be a National Divorce or Second American Civil War. There may be rolling political violence like Bárbara F. Walter keeps writing about, but not the full-scale civil war that I’m nervous about.

Blues just don’t have it in them.

And, yet, if it becomes clear that either the 2024 election is going to be brazenly stolen or the new, incoming MAGA POTUS is going to be really, really radical in their policies…it’s possible, just possible that there might be a massive groundswell for a National Divorce in Blue states — with California and New York City being the two places where the bolts begin to pop off of the country in a rather conspicuous manner.

I don’t know, we don’t quite know the final elements of what will happen in 2024 — especially like what SCOTUS will rule on the “Independant Legislature” concept — so….lulz? I’m always, always wrong and any “Fourth Turning” (giggle) is about 18 months from now. But I would suggest you think seriously about getting the fuck out of the United States if you have the means.

‘Fourth Turning’ Flashpoint: California

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I believe that the so-called “Fourth Turning” is astrology for dudes, but it’s a useful shorthand for what I believe may happen in late 2024 – early 2025 between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025.

Now, I can’t predict the future. So, lulz, I’m probably wrong. The following is a mixture of entertainment and wild speculation. I’m just working on the assumption that we won’t dodge the bullet that we dodged in 2020 – 2021.

Anyway, with out of the way, a key place to keep an eye on is California. There are two ways that we might find ourselves talking about a Secessionist Crisis when it comes to California. One is, the agenda for the incoming MAGA president is so radical that it forces the issue, while the other is the Republicans steal the 2024 election in such a brazen manner that we all start thinking about Blues leaving the Union.

And, what’s more, there’s the issue of what the agenda of California leaving the Union might be. Would it be just to establish its own nation-state or would it be to join forces with other Blue states to form a new Blue Union? That is really up the air this far out. It could go either way.

Honestly, I just don’t see this happening. Rather than put up a fight, millions of wealthy liberals will actually do what they’ve been grumbling about doing for years now — vote with their feet. Blue states bend a knee to fascism and we wake up 20 years from now with the same POTUS who is, for some reason, babbling about “deNazifying” Canada of all places.

But this particular nightmare scenario is at least something to think about going forward over the course of the next two or so years. Remember, though, I’m always, always, wrong. So, lulz.