Tag: The Fourth Turning

Zoom!

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Barring something I can’t predict — which could very well happen — I am well on track to zooming through the second half of the alpha release of my first novel. Once I finish that, then I will pause for a bit to reflect on how I can take the beta release of the third draft to the next level.

I’m kind of a kook. (That’s me ~2007 in the background.)

I need to focus on consistency, canon and character. I finally — finally — understand what this novel is about and what motivates my heroine and as such I feel pretty confident I can cruise through the remainder of the alpha release. The beta release, however, may take me a while because that will be the release that I either hand over to and editor (somehow) or I begin to query with.

This beta release of the third draft of the novel Is It, one way or another. I will have Finished A Novel and the the post-production / editing / querying process will begin.

Now, obviously, there are all kinds of fucked up things that might happen. The Petite Singularity could happen and everyone will have a Mind In A Box that they can tell to write them a personalized novel in seconds. Or The Fourth Turning could happen and the US will descend into chaos or autocracy.

I hope to write a heroine as intriguing as Lisbeth Salander.

But fuck it, I’m really pleased with this novel. I’m really pleased with what I’ve come up with and the novel is VERY MUCH a reflection of my personality to the point that if you finish reading it, you’re going to maybe know a little bit more about me than you might think.

Anyway.

All of this is happening in the context of me potentially finishing ANOTHER NOVEL in the same series at some point this year. And, really, in a sense, the only thing that would slow me down on that front is my own arbitrary perfectionism and having to accommodate all the changes to the story that I made when I finished the first novel.

Corrie Yee has the phenotype of the heroine of my first novel.

I’m feeling pretty excited. It will be interesting how long it takes for me to find an agent. I’m going to give myself about five years before I say, “Well, I guess this novel isn’t it.” And I hope to keep writing while I query this particular novel so I might have a more marketable scifi novel I can pitch if things don’t work out with this particular mystery-thriller homage to Stieg Larsson’s Millennium Series.

Only time will tell, I suppose.

Sometimes, I Wonder About A.I. People

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t think it makes me an AI “doomer” to simply suggest there be SOME sort of guardrails built in to AI, especially given the very real possibility that AI could consume, well, everything.

Just like nuclear power can both power a city and blow it up, so, too, can AI power take humanity to a new level of peace and prosperity…and make reality a living hell.

Of course, some of all this desire to have “unbiased” and “unaligned” AI comes from people who are either oblivious to the consequences of that desire or people who want to blow up the world. The whole thing is fucked up.

If AI is going to be as important as I believe it will be, then, yeah, we need some controls to make sure it doesn’t let people easily figure out how to hurt a lot of people. But, alas, Something Bad is going to happen — really bad — before we have the political will to do anything about “aligning” or “unaligning” AI.

I do think that the AI / robotics revolution has only just begun. We’re not even at the end of the beginning yet. It could very well be that we reach a Petite Singularity between now and early 2025 — so we could face The Fourth Turning politically and the Petite Singularity on the technological front.

America May Be Finally Felled By…Vibes?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue of the moment is how the vibes are off in America, no matter how well the economy is actually doing. People are just unhappy and grumpy. It makes you wonder what the fuck is going on in America, why this is the case.

It definitely seems as though we’re going to vote malignant ding-dong Donald Trump back into office because we have just given up because of bad vibes. And, yet, as I have said before, I think maybe we should not fear this particular situation, but embrace it.

I say this because — we’re fucked.

Because of long term macro demographic changes in the United States, the Republican Party is now a pure, uncut fascist party. And, really, it’s just a matter of time that because of the ebb and flow of any semi-functioning democracy that one of the two major parties will get power again.

As such, of all the people to attempt to transition us into a fascist autocracy, Trump is probably the “best” of the available options. And, given how bad he will be in his tyranny, maybe….the good guys will win sooner rather than later?

I’m not advocating anything, but if I had to organize an General Strike against a American tyrant, I should would rather do it against Red King Trump I than anyone else who might be available.

But, hopefully, it won’t come to that.

Apocalypse 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I don’t know what to tell you, folks. I sometimes think it’s better to get it over with and let Trump win in 2024 and take our chances. I say this not because I want Trump to win, but the fact that if he loses in 2024, we’re just going to punt our problems down the road like we did in 2020.

Trump will be the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination if he loses in 2024 and doesn’t manage to start a civil war in the process. So, why not just have at it.

Trump, unto himself, could cause some pretty catastrophic things to happen in the United States. It will not be pretty. It will be jaw dropping and dystopian. I no longer have any hope that the good guys will win, either, not without a civil war.

So, pray.

There Is An Economic Element To What Divides America At The Moment — Abortion

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Someone far more even keel than I has long poo-pooed my somewhat hysterical fears about a the potential for a revolution / civil war starting in late 2024 – early 2025 because, in his opinion, there is something absent: an economic element.

He suggests that you can only have a civil war / revolution if there some sort of economic component to the causes of such a conflict. With the original Civil War, it was, of course the economics of slavery that caused the United States to buckle.

But as I have proposed before, abortion is an economic division in the United States and, as such, could be the cornerstone of any revolution / civil war in the United States that might start in the next 18 months.

Trump’s hero, Viktor Orban of Hungary.

Do I really think a civil war is going to happen should Trump be re-elected? I dunno. I honestly don’t know. It’s a least a POSSIBILITY, but not a probability. At this point, the only reason why I give the idea any mental energy is how absolutely dumb and ham-handed Trump would be in any effort to transition the United States into an autocracy.

Anyone else in his position — ANYONE ELSE — would be able to do it in such a way that there was no civil war and we would transition to, at a minimum, an Hungary-like autocracy in due course.

But Trump is so fucking dumb and stupid that he, unto himself, could push the United States to the brink.

From Hungary With Love: Why Trump May Fail To Bring Orbanism To America

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Because of the Electoral College, Trump is just 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being president again — barring a Black Swan event. As such, it’s clear that Trump could very well become POTUS again, despite being a ding-dong and a bad candidate.

Viktor Orban

But what Trump — and the MAGA Republican Party — want to do is to bring the Viktor Orban-style autocracy to America. And if it was anyone else but Trump charged with doing that, it would work. But this is Trump we’re talking about — he is very stupid and lazy.

So what could very well happen is Trump could go full tyrant on us and the country will collapse into chaos because he literally starts to snatch people off the street. Or, what’s worse, what happens if he starts to *shoot* people in the streets?

If Trump starts to do tyrannical things like that, then there is a real chance that there might be a Blue General Strike that might pressure the U.S. Military into deposing Trump in some way and….then there’s a civil war because Red States will leave the Union.

That’s the dystopian nightmare. But I suppose there is some sort of spectrum of how bad things might get. But we have to understand that things could get very bumpy in 2025 if Trump is re-elected.

Pray.

But For Macro Historical Trends Helping Him, I Would Believe Trump Has Setup The Conditions For A Biden Blow Out In November

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve spent A LOT of time writing and talking about a lot of dystopian hellscapes that might happen in the next 18 months. And, yet, Trump keeps doing things that suggest he is setting up the conditions for a massive Biden blowout in the fall.

His latest dumb move has been to gut the Republican National Committee and to replace all its staff with MAGA toadies — including his daughter-in-law. That’s a “Not Great, Bob,” situation if you want to win an election. And YET, there are severe macro things happening that are warping the election process to the point that, lulz, Trump is still just 60,000 votes in five swing states away from winning.

And, what’s more, if he does lose, there’s nothing to stop him from ranting about the need for a national divorce and, unto himself, causing a civil war.

So. I dunno. I just don’t know what to tell you. It could still go either way. I do think we’re probably going to just slip peacefully into autocracy — but for what an abject idiot Trump is. He could be re-elected and be the only person in such a position who would thrash around so much that he would cause the first-ever deposing of a president by the military after a General Strike because he is just so absolutely dumb and tyrannical.

Hopefully, of course, it won’t come to that.

2025: Trump As Tyrant

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While all the conditions are there for Trump to lose, the conditions are ALSO there for Trump to win. The key thing is if Trump does all the crazy tyrannical shit he vows to do in 2025, what will be the reaction? Because that is the thing that not enough people have been willing to address.

If Trump wins, leading up to Trump being sworn in, a lot of smug Twitter liberals will leave the country in a panic. But that will leave us Poors to deal with Tyrant Trump. One issue is what will happen when on “day one” starts to round up undocumented people in hopes up putting them in camps and deporting them.

Now, a lot that may happen depends on who controls the House. If Trump goes full tyrant, then he will probably be promptly impeached if Democrats control the House. Then there is a possibility that maybe, just maybe there might be some sort of Women’s Strike or General Strike on the part of Blues to pressure the Senate to actually do its job and get rid of Trump.

But the thing is, Trump would have to get really, really, really bad — push the entire nation to the breaking point — for something as dramatic as a Blue General Strike to be successful. It would be a dark, chaotic moment in America’s over two centuries of history.

And if we managed to impeach Trump successfully because of the pressure of a General Strike, then there’s a chance that not only could his veep be the person who actually turns us into an autocracy, it could also start a civil war when Red States leave the union.

So, I don’t know what to tell you. The next 18 months could be totally fucked up and historic in some pretty astonishing ways.

Is Trump An American Caesar?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have long believed that Trump is NOT a great man of history like Caesar. But I do think he is a historical and constitutional torpedo headed towards the American ship of state. The key issue is — Trump is, just like Biden, old as hell. And Trump isn’t in the greatest of health because of his weight.

So, there is every reason to believe that Trump could destroy everything…then it will be his MAGA Nazi successor who will do the mop up work. Or, even less conclusively, it could be that the process of turning America into a white Christian ethnostate is half done.

It could be that Trump gets us as far as starting the process of crushing American democracy through a rouge Constitutional Convention…then shuffles off this mortal coil. That would cause even more chaos and uncertainty because…then what?

I think the key thing is that the Republican Party is not fascist and it’s just a question of if we collectively shrug when they attempt to turn us into a fascist state, or if we do something about it. (Not advocating anything.)

The next 18 months will be….interesting, not matter what.

Well, Being Sober Is Making Me A More Productive Writer

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I fuck hate being sober. I really do. But here I am, feeling obliged to be sober because, well, I would like to live. No longer living in an alcohol induced haze has caused me to be a more productive writer.

My novel’s heroine sports a sleeve tattoo much like this one on Megan Fox.

Maybe not as creative, but at least more focused and productive.

I hope to get a lot of writing done in the near term. Things are moving really fast with this new iteration of the novel, to the point that I may soon be working on the NEXT novel in what I hope will be a series.

And that doesn’t even begin to address the scifi Western I want to write. All of this is happening, of course, in the context of the looming Fourth Turning and or Petite Singularity making all my hard work writing these novels rather quaint and moot.

Anyway, wish me luck.