Trump Endgame Enigma: ‘Jhi-na Syndrome’



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I love scenarios. I love weighing different factors, asking “what if” and wondering how a number of conditions would work. Usually my scenarios are the absolute worst-case.

So, let’s play the “What if Trump finally lost his mind” scenario.

Here’s the thing: first, how would we know?

Trump is so conspicuous in his instability, that for him to have finally have cracked, something REALLY Big would have have to happen. I am still of the opinion that Trump is more likely to implode than explode and we’ll simply not see him very much in his inevitable ill-gotten second term. He’ll be catatonic somewhere, babbling about the Deep State.

But, let’s say between now and, say, mid-August, a series of things push Trump over the edge. A combination of a pandemic, a depression, BountyGate and maybe even his taxes being released, becomes such a weigh on his mind that he snaps. I think such a decompensation would come a logic trap — he would absolutely want to win and yet he would absolute know he wasn’t going to win. (Though he might never get that bad since it’s obvious the Russians are going to hack into our election systems in exchange for Trump removing 1/3 of our fighting force out of Germany before September.)

Anyway, let’s just say Trump snaps.

I think a number of things would happen at the same time. A lot of things that have been rolling around his mind would pop out. He might whip is cock out. He might tweet out a dick pic. He might began to tweet out out the N-word to any African American who crosses him. He might simple begin to babble vulgarities at every opportunity. Or even stranger things might happen, like he dives head first into Tik-Tok and starts attempting some of the dances there. Or maybe he really, REALLY makes it clear he wants certain people “reminded of the power of the 2nd Amendment.” He keeps doing this now and no one takes him seriously. What if he won’t shut up about it in a rather manic fashion for days or weeks on end?

The next issue is what the reaction would be.

Given how close we are to the election, initially, not a lot would happen different. Republicans would simply ignore the behavior, hoping it will go away. It would take a few days of some seriously disturbing behavior before the pressure would begin to build for something, anything to happen.

This is where things get murky. I can’t figure out how we would ever get rid of Trump, even if he was, say, going out of his way to start a war with the DPRK in a desperate bid to “Wag the Dog.” I might go so far as to say this crisis might go on and on and on and on for months until the election rolls around and, surprise! Trump weirdly wins anyway.

Then we spend three months on edge we try to figure out how we’re going to get Electors to vote for Joe Biden because it’s absolutely clear that because of a quid pro quo with Russia, Trump has illegally won re-election because of hacking on the part of Putin.

I guess the point is — I don’t know how we would ever actually get rid of Trump, even if he fucking totally lost his fucking mind and put the lives of 300 million Americans at risk. We’re stuck with him, no matter what.

Did Trump Kill Snark?



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I’m reading the book “The Fourth Turning” for the novel I’m developing and I can see why people like Steve Bannon like it so much. But it has got me thinking just now about other cycles in culture, outside of the political.

We are definitely in something of a funk when it comes to edgy, provocative writing and art. It happened in the 2006-2008 era for some reason. We really haven’t had good snark (or pop rock) sense then. We don’t have any popular, yet edgy pop culture to consume these days. And the case could be made that the Trump administration’s lack of shame and self-awareness has killed irony and snark for all times.

I kept expecting some punk Millennial to pick up a guitar and start writing punk songs, but that has yet to happen. I now have to hope that “Zoomers” are going to do it — that they managed to punk Trump’s asshole campaign manager Brad Pascarle is a promising sign of a possible future.

And, yet, I almost think the very ideas of “irony” and “snark” no longer are applicable in this hyper connected world. Maybe there will be no Fourth Turning. Maybe it won’t come roaring back.

Maybe irony is dead. Maybe Trump killed it.

Wait, What? My Webstats, The Unredacted Mueller Report & Trump’s Taxes



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something weird is happening in my Webstats. When weird things happen there, I have absolutely no context. All I know that it’s happening. So, here’s the weird thing: twice in the last week or so, someone has randomly looked at some of my writing leading up to the Mueller Report.

I’ve given it some thought, and there are three options:

  1. Someone knows something about the unredacted report, given that a judge is looking at it right now
  2. Someone agrees with me that Mueller and Barr may have had a “gentlemen’s agreement” to wrap it up as quickly as possible for “the sake of the country.”
  3. Their interest in what I wrote isn’t about the Mueller Report, but Trump’s taxes.

My reasoning for the last one is this: if SCOTUS rules against Trump, it’s at least POSSIBLE that we could be in for a severe political crisis, so severe some pretty fucking surreal things could happen just a few months before the election.

I guess there’s a fourth possibility — someone knows something and they know that any crisis about the unredacted Mueller Report would be the first of Trump’s ill-gotten second term.

How Trump Won



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Autocrats never lose, and as such, Trump is going to win in 2020. Here are a few of the ways he will win.

The Insurance Policy
Trump is going to ditch Pence and name some insane person (The Kooch, Tom Cotton, Steve King, Kris Kobach) as his veep. Or someone ostensibly sane (Ivanka Trump), but actual a proxy for the person they will name their veep when Trump finally goes insane in his second term. Ivanka, in particular, is perfect to help him pull off an “upset” win (see below) because she’s a threefer: a woman, Jewish and a Trump (and moderate!)

The Quid Pro Quo
The United States is removing 1/3 of its troops from Germany after a friendly call between Trump and Putin. This is set to happen by September, just in time for Putin to directly hack into our election systems on Election Day. By the time we figure out why the polls were so wrong again, lulz, we’ve had a Constitutional Convention and Trump is a barely functioning American Brezhnev.

The Durham Investigation
This is still lurking out there, ready to pop out. This is a catch-all investigation into everyone Trump hates by this dude named Durham. The conditions are there for Biden to be indicted just about the same time as the Second Comey Letter. Lulz! Trump wins.

COVID19
It’s possible that if COVID19 will simply grow so deadly that center-Left people won’t go to the polls (the ones that are still open for them) and Trump squeezes about a victory in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Trump Sues
If the other two things don’t work, then Trump sues, claiming massive voter fraud. It goes to SCOTUS and he wins 5-4. Lulz!

The Electoral College Commission
It’s very easy to see a 1876-style commission established to figure out which Electors to allow to cast their votes. Last time, it was made up of half Republicans, half Democrats. In the divided America we live in, all they have to do is have another Brooks Brothers Riot at some point and lulz, Trump wins.

General Electoral Ratfucking
If all THAT doesn’t hand the presidency to Trump, he simply ratfucks Electors on a personal level. His criminality and insanity fuse into one. He doxxes them on Twitter, telling MAGA, Proud Boys and whomever else will listen that they and their families have to be taught a lesson about the power of the 2nd Amendment. Or he bribes Electors. Or whatever else the fuck he wants to do. Nothing matters and no one cares at this point.

General Election Violence
This is a real wild card. It’s going to happen at some point, the question is how badly is it going to get. It’s going to get so bad that it’s the biggest story of the year, bigger than COVID19. America doesn’t have any history of political violence, and so when MAGA starts murdering people like me in cold blood, well, there’s a chance that, in itself, will be enough to keep Trump in office.

The point is — TRUMP IS NEVER LEAVING OFFICE FOR ANY REASON.

He is going to get into his second term and gradually turn into an American Brezhnev with absolute power after a rouge Constitutional Convention gives it to him. His successor will be even worst than he is.

Get out of the country if you can.

#COVID19 #Pandemic D-Day: March 9th

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


It is now the conventional wisdom of Twitter that today’s the day. Today will be the “event” that pushes us into the rolling crisis of the COVID19 pandemic. It’s the day that will be up there with Dec. 7th and Sept. 11.

The reason is, we finally have a metric that the average person who is otherwise preoccupied with raising their kids and paying their mortgage can understand: the economy .

Or, more specifically — the stock market.

And that’s why Trump is so obsessed with the stock market, it’s a metric HE can understand.

And, really, what people on Twitter are probably thinking is if the stockmarket crashes in a big way today, that will be the event that causes Trump to switch gears and go from ignoring the crisis to exploiting it in order to consolidate power.

The thing I missed in all my thinking about this eventuality is that very thing — I didn’t think about Trump’s natural inclination to scare the shit out of people to political advantage. So, in the end, it may be Trump himself who causes the most damage.

He’s going to be the one who scares people about Asian people by calling COVID19 “Wuhan virus.” It will be he who whips his followers into a frenzy such that they start murdering liberals — and maybe even staging coups at the state level.

But also, some of that talk is the basic acceptance that Trump is probably going to flip out today or sometime soon. He’s going to go transactional with his insanity out of fear of losing the 2020 election.

I am very alarmed at the prospect of Trump / MAGA switching gears today and blaming Asians (and liberals) for all of this. That people like Hugh Hewitt are already laying the groundwork for that is pretty astonishing. MAGA really is a death cult. They really are prepared to get us all killed in the service of the Dear Leader.

It’s rather shocking, once you realize how obvious it is. Yikes!

A Most Dangerous Game — Republicans’ Trump Whistleblower Gotterdammerung Strategy

Our immediate political future.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Well, buckle up. Trump’s now goading anyone who will listen to out the whistlebower so he can turn around and rant about every aspect of the poor guy’s life on Twitter. The fact that the guy’s name is bouncing around the MAGA-InfoWars Bullshit Echo Chamber and Trump feels he doesn’t have the political cover to do anything about it is obviously really beginning to eat away at him.

Trump allies keep queuing the information up for him to retweet — namely Sen. Rand Paul — and for some reason Trump’s yet to take the bait. So, what I predicted would happen is, in fact, happening. The pressure is now slowly rising. Trump is stoking it as much as possible, too. Since he can’t rant about the personal life of the whistleblower, he rants about how he can’t do it in the guise of how the press knows the name and won’t publicize t so he can get the poor guy murdered with a “joke.”

At this point, the issue how, exactly, the name becomes so widely known that Trump feels he can blurt it out on Twitter. This is when the Trump Train becomes the Crazy Train. If I was playing music at this part of the Trump movie, I would play Motorhead’s The Ace Of Spades over a montage of the procession of events we’re now seeing unfold before our very eyes. The average person — especially those not on Twitter — has no idea what is about to happen.

Trump is so very, very close to being comfortable ranting all day about every aspect of the whistleblower to such an extent that any normal non-fuckwit MAGA fascist racist misogynist — will be taken aback by how dangerous Trump’s rhetoric has become. It’s all going to come to a head one way another. Either Sen. Lindsey Graham calls on the whistleblower to testify in public under oath for 11 hours to distract from the impeachment process or the poor guy is literally murdered in cold blood by a fucking MAGA dipshit with an AR-15 who wants to martyr themselves for the Der Fuhrer.

Republicans will clutch their pearls and say the MAGA assassin was OBVIOUSLY mentally ill and the president can’t be held accountable for that guys actions, and besides, we OBVIOUSLY need to end the impeachment process immediately because people are dying.

While I generally have grown extremely jaded with Trump president, I have a least a minor amount of hope that if this unlikely — but not impossible — scenario occurs, Trump’s political days will be numbered. But, who knows, really.

All I do know is that things are on the cusp of growing far more surreal and dark than we could have ever imagined.