There are two things to keep an eye out for starting Election Day 2024 if Trump is re-elected — smug Twitter liberals fleeing the country and people leaving their state to states that better fit their personal politics.
If the first happens, then, lulz, we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy. I predict as many as 1 million smug Twitter liberals with circle jerk podcasts could simply bounce between November 2024 and February 2025. Maybe I’m over estimating these numbers, but I do believe that there will be a large number of Twitter liberals who peace out because they have the means to escape the looming Trump autocracy.
Meanwhile, if there is a mad rush of Reds fleeing to Red States and Blues fleeing to Blue states then there is a chance that we’re going to have some sort of epic shitshow political crisis, the largest scene since the beginning of the Civil War. I think it’s more likely such a scenario would happen if Trump loses, but I suppose it’s possible that if Trump wins there might be something akin to a “Glorious Revolution” that would make people feel pretty insecure about their personal safety because of political violence.
And remember, any attempt at a Blue “Glorious Revolution” probably will do nothing more than prompt a secession crisis as Red states decide to leave the Union rather than tolerate any of the structural reforms that a Glorious Revolution would push through.
I guess what I’m saying is — we’re fucked.
The only scenario where there isn’t a “Fourth Turning” is if Biden wins and Trump goes peacefully back into the shadows. While possible, that’s…unlikely.
I’m a bit worried. A year from now, the country COULD be tearing itself apart as we lurch towards either a MAGA-themed autocracy or something akin to a civil war. I live in a really deep-Red area of Virginia and one of the signs that Something Bad is about to happen is if I don’t feel safe anymore.
If I have to flee my bum fuck Egypt home for a Blue part of Virginia…oh boy. Things would be careening towards a dark place. But to even speculate on such things really is hysterical doom shit.
It could be that Thanksgiving 2024 will be just…Thanksgiving. Nothing will change and I will do it like I always do. But, I dunno, bruh. It definitely seems as though the moment Election Day 2024 arrives things will be…bumpy.
By Thanksgiving 2024, either incoming POTUS Tyrant Trump will have made it clear who he’s going to arrest…or Biden’s re-election will cause a Secession Crisis and we’ll all being worried about Texas leaving the Union before January. But I just don’t know. It could go either way. It really could.
It might be that nothing of note happens by Thanksgiving 2024. But if Trump gets re-elected we are in DEEP TROUBLE.
Not sense the 1930s movie The Shape Of Things To Come has a movie so predicted the future. Every day, it seems as though “Her” is pretty much our future in, what, 18 months?
If that is the case, then, holy shit. The entire knowledge economy is about to be totally re-imagined. And that will happen in the context of the fucking Fourth Turning. Or, put another way, holy shit are we in for a bumpy road over the next 18 or more months.
We could see a total transformation of the technological and political landscape in a rather abrupt manner. Late 2024, early 2025 has at least the making of a “holy shit” moment in human history. By 2030, the entire geopolitical world could be re-formed into something new and exotic, especially if you think a few regional wars might go hot with a limited nuclear exchange.
But remember — the whole thing will be scary as shit while it’s happening. There will be no narrative or value to what happens. And, if things get as bad as I fear, there will be long stretches of time where communication itself is something of a luxury.
Anyway. We definitely seem to be rushing towards some sort of “Petite Singularity” in the very near future. Buckle up.
Way, way, WAY too many well meaning liberals have learned the wrong lesson from the lasting political power of malignant ding-dong Trump. They continue to cling on the delusional belief that if only Hillary Clinton had won in 2016 all of our problems would have been solved.
They. Are. So. Fucking. Delusional.
I say this because Trump is a symptom, not a cause. If Trump had lost in 2016 two things might have happened instead — he would have gotten worse and become president in 2020, or someone like him would have become POTUS in 2020 or 2024. There are severe macro issues bending American politics in weird ways and all the people who jerk off to the latest breathless Mueller, She Wrote tweet need to grow the fuck up.
In my mind, Mueller, She Wrote symbolizes everything wrong with modern liberalism. No one is going to save us, babe. We have to save ourselves. I wear your block on Twitter as a badge of honor.
The thing that liberals seem to think is if only Hillary Clinton had won, we would be awash in liberal-progressive judges. Ha! Bullshit. All that would have happened is there would be three or more vacancies on the SCOTUS — and many more throughout the judiciary — until Trump, or someone like him, was elected in 2020 or 2024.
If you think that’s “hysterical doom shit,” then fuck you. You’re an oblivious idiot who thinks that if only you tweet harder that somehow, magically the rise of fascism will be stopped without you having risk your life and scared honor in the real fucking world.
While neither Hitler nor Pol Pot were great guys, I think we’re missing the point to suggest that Tyrant Trump will be an American Hitler. I say this because while Tyrant Trump definitely shares a lot of traits with Hitler, there is one key element to MAGA that makes me think Pol Pot is a more accurate comparison: MAGA is a movement not of expansion, but of retrenchment.
What’s more, emptying the cities and having American Killing fields is definitely something I could imagine Trump — or his equally deranged fascist successor — doing. MAGA hates the elites and the cities to the point that if things went totally off the rails then soon enough, after the ICE infrastructure has been weaponized, MAGA may skip a few steps and simply empty the cities en masse.
That is an extremely dark scenario. And I don’t *really* think any such thing will happen. But if we’re going to think about what happens if Trump goes full tyrant, maybe we think more about the social impact of Pol Pot rather than Hitler.
As it stands, Tyrant Trump seems to think that all his problems with a restless populace will be fixed by simply invoking the Insurrection Act. In that respect, MAGA “thoughtleaders” are making some pretty silly and child-like assumptions. They made similar assumptions about SCOTUS in the lead up to the January 6th Insurrection.
The problem is — after having read about the consolidation of Nazi power in early 1933, I realize that both Project 2025 and Agenda47 have a huge, gaping hole in their conspiracy: no SA.
And, it gets even more complicated. The US of 2025 is far larger in both population and geographic size than Germany in 1933. And the US is far more decentralized. And diverse. And has a far more potent tradition of democracy than the Weimer Republic.
It seems as though MAGA believes that simply by corrupting the administration of justice and the executive they can walk all over the American population. MAGA believes Americans will allow Tyrant Trump to throttle American democracy in broad daylight. I assume they think this because Trump has gotten away with a lot already, so, lulz, of course he can go full tyrant without any consequences.
But if Trump goes full tyrant and corrupts the administration of justice to the point that he is literally snatching people off the street and throwing them in jail, then….uhhh…there is going to be a reaction on the part of the American population.
The key thing is that the Nazis had an SA to browbeat the 48% of the Germany population that didn’t support them. Even if Trump decided to organize some sort of national paramilitary group at some point in early 2025 when it becomes clear that invoking the Insurrection Act isn’t going to cut it, there would be a lag time.
Trump would need a least maybe 300,000 or more MAGA SA members to scare the shit out of people in Blue States. But doing that would, unto itself, cause a reaction on the part of the American population. And remember, all of this would happen in the context of Trump being a lazy idiot who would just thrash around in anger rather than doing any sort of Great Man shit.
I suppose Trump could weaponize the existing ICE infrastructure and turn the organization into some sort of Gestapo. But doing that would ALSO really piss a lot of Blue State people off. And also alienate a lot of Traditionalists who just want to put kids in cages, not have their Blue family members roughed up and tortured in a camp.
I still believe that some sort of General Strike combined with the use of the 14th Amendment might lure the U.S. Military into supporting some sort of toppling of Tyrant Trump. But THAT would also cause a huge problem — probably in the guise of a Secession crisis.
The whole point is — unless we magically punt our problems down the road by peacefully re-electing Biden in 2024….we’re fucked.
I have been in a very, very idyllic situation for an extended amount of time when it comes to writing a novel. And, finally, I feel as though I’ve locked in the beginning of the novel so things should move much, much faster now.
But.
The issue is that I fear Something is going to throw things up in the air. Something will happen that either causes the context of my efforts to write a novel dramatically or even significantly slow the writing down.
And, what’s more, the clock is ticking. I’m not going to live forever — I’m the exact age Stieg Larsson was when he died — AND the rise of AI and the potential Fourth Turning in late 2024, early 2025 is rather alarming.
There’s just nothing I can do. I just have to accept that I have to work harder and faster. I have to lean into my insecurities and fears to generate the creative energy necessary to get this novel done.
It was a Nothingburger According to MAGA, the January 6th Insurrection was a lulz. It was just a bunch of peaceful, fun loving folks who wants to take a looky-loo at the Capitol building while certification was taking place. It was a Antifa-FBI-Deepstate False Flag According to MAGA, the January 6th Insurrection was all just a false flag operation to make MAGA look bad. All the parts of the event that hurt MAGA politically can be ascribed to evil Deep State people shipped into D.C. on “ghost buses” full of undercover FBI agents who slipped into what was otherwise a peaceful event to specifically hurt MAGA. It was a Patriotic Act According to MAGA — specifically Donald Trump — the January 6th Insurrection was done by a group of patriots who simply wanted to tell the U.S. Congress that they objected to the “steal.”
by Ender Absolutely no one listens to me, so this is just me having some fun using my native tendency to run scenarios. As I keep saying, at the moment it seems as though the MAGA Nazi plot against America being concocted by Agenda47 and Project 2025 has a crucial flaw: no paramilitary group.
Tyrant Trump, because he is a lazy doofus, simply assumes that if he invokes the Insurrection Act that that, unto itself, will be enough to pacify a restless nation mad at him for going full MAGA Nazi tyrant.
The crux of the issue is, well, Trump.
Any other Republican — ANY OTHER REPUBLICAN — could peacefully shepherd us into an autocratic managed democracy without any problems. American democracy is on its last legs.
But this is ding-dong Trump. So he’s going to come into power in 2025 and frantically do all sorts of things that will really, really piss people off — many of them Traditionalists — and, as such, prime the country for something we’ve never seen before: a military coup.
Now, remember, even if Trump has some sort of secret underground mass of paramilitary people waiting to pop out in late January 2025, he can’t use them to do what the Nazis used the SA to do — browbeat people into submission. The country is too big, too decentralized and has too strong a democratic tradition.
So, if the MAGA Nazis “win” it will be because Radical Moderates let them win. As such, as I’ve written before, what I would do is organize some sort of massive strike. Women, because they really, really hate Trump, would be the perfect group to lean into with any sort of national strike. At least at first.
But for either a Women’s Strike are a General Strike to work, things would have to be really, really, REALLY bad. Americans, in general, are pretty laid back. We just don’t even think in terms of a General Strike. We think if we vote, thing gradually we get what we want. So for a General Strike to happen, Trump would have to have corrupted the administration of justice in such a conspicuous, dramatic way that millions of Americans would freak the fuck out.
I think if things did get that bad, then you have a Women’s Strike, then a General Strike and then you appeal to the U.S. Military to remove Tyrant Trump because of the 14th Amendment. I know a court in Colorado spit the difference on that issue just today, but if the U.S. Military is involved, that, unto itself, would be enough pressure to get the courts to say, “Yeah, Trump can’t even be in office. Have at it.”
The last goal of any General Strike would be the calling up of a Constitutional Convention. But it would have to be done in such a way that the fucking MAGA Nazis couldn’t cram through MAGA Nazi Enabling Acts.
One last thing — none of this would happen in a vacuum. It would not be fun. It would be scary as hell because there is a pretty good chance that if we did manage to topple Tyrant Trump, that there would be a Secession Crisis because of it as Red States left the Union in protest.
So, I don’t want any of this to really happen. I just like to run scenarios. I like to make my abstract fears concrete. Keep the faith.
While it’s EXTREMELY UNLIKELY, it’s at least *possible* that some combination of a General Strike, a much-delayed invocation of the 14th Amendment and a military coup might happen in the United States at some point starting in early 2025.
The reason is simple — Trump and his Agenda47 & Project 2025 simply believe that invoking the Insurrection Act will magically allow them to pin the American populace down while they transition us into some sort of autocratic military dictatorship.
That’s not these things work. That’s not how any of this works!
The U.S. Military is a very pro-democratic (small d) institution and no amount of filling the Defense Department with a bunch hand-picked fascist goons will change that. And they can fire all the leaders in the military they like, too — they would be grasping at straws because they don’t have an SA. They don’t have a paramilitary group at their beck and call to knock heads on a practical basis.
And, what’s more, even if MAGA is plotting so top secret large-scale paramilitary organization, the 2025 USA is not 1933 Weimar Germany. The US is a very decentralized country will millions of people, a large land footprint and a long, deep tradition of democracy.
That is why if anyone else was in Trump’s position, then, yeah, I could see us peacefully transitioning into a MAGA-themed autocracy. Because they would be smart about it and slowly, bit by bit transition us into a managed democracy like what is found in Russia, Turkey and Hungary.
But this is malignant ding-dong Trump we’re talking about. He’s going to swoop in and frantically try to get revenge on anyone who has hurt his fee-fees to the point that he could very well shock a lot, A LOT of those sweet, sweet Traditionalists who to date have been willing to be quite simply so they can put kids in cages.
I say this as someone who has come to believe that the only “red line” for Traditionalists when it comes to MAGA Nazis is the personal. So it doesn’t really matter what the use, the Insurrection Act or some super-secret expansion of the Patriot Front — the moment MAGA Nazis are to, well, act like MAGA Nazis, there is probably going to be some sort of mass uprising in the United States.
Now, if anyone would listen to me — but they never do — what I would do is start NOW to organize some sort of Women’s Strike. Start to tell women across the country that if Trump is re-elected and he goes full Nazi tyrant, to simply not go to work. En masse. For a few days.
Remember, any reaction on the part of MAGA Nazi Tyrant Trump would probably evoke a severe response from Americans who otherwise wise don’t even think about politics. If Trump tries to crush a Women’s strike using the Insurrection Act OR via some expanded Patriot Front, it would not happen in a vacuum.
There would be consquences.
Now, in my fevered imagination, once a few very pissed off women stopped going to work, you could use that momentum to organize a General Strike. Then you pitch the idea to the U.S. Military that *legally* Trump and his toady Veep aren’t even legally in office.
Ta-da. There you go. End Trump problem. Now, doing that would cause a series of OTHER problems. You would have to make sure the Speaker of the House wasn’t MAGA Mike. And you would also need to somehow force a non-MAGA aligned Constitutional Convention be called up.
This whole plot has been complicated just now by the fact that a judge has determined that the 14th Amendment doesn’t apply to Trump. But will note that during Reconstruction there were some…novel…interpretations of the Constitutional that would be similar to how a Radical Moderate might use against Trump to oust him.
But, anyway….lulz. No one listens to me. No one cares.
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